Brest Top Ligue 1 xG Table After Four Matches

Ligue 1 has opened with no perfect start after four rounds, and the early table is already carrying a warning: the results have not always matched the performances beneath them.

Ligue 1 xG table puts Brest on top after four matches

Lille, Monaco and Rennes share first place in the actual standings after each recorded three wins and a draw. Yet an expected-goals assessment, based on chances created and conceded, paints a sharply different picture of the opening month.

Brest would lead the league on 8.9 projected points, despite sitting eighth in the real table with five points. Paris FC would be second with 8.8 projected points; Liam Rosenior’s side are currently fourth on eight points.

Paris Saint-Germain are also rated far more favourably by the underlying numbers. Luis Enrique’s team have five actual points and stand seventh, but their expected-goals return suggests 7.5 points, enough to place them level in third in the alternative ranking.

The same figure applies to Toulouse, whose projected standing is one of the most striking early reversals. Toulouse are second from bottom with two points in the live Ligue 1 table, but their performances would have them level third on 7.5 expected points.

Early leaders fall in projected standings

The three clubs setting the real pace have all collected more points than their expected-goals record would indicate. Lille’s projected total is 4.5 points, Monaco’s is 5.2 and Rennes’ stands at five, placing all three in the lower half of the model’s table.

Strasbourg also suffer a major drop. Racing are sixth with seven actual points, but their expected-goals profile gives them only 4.1 projected points, which would leave them 14th.

The early picture is particularly unusual because neither PSG nor Lens, the leading forces of the previous campaign, have made a fast start in the conventional standings. Marseille have also struggled to build momentum.

Lens and Marseille rated higher than their points totals

Lens have four points and are 10th in Ligue 1, but their chance data suggests a return of 6.4 points, placing them sixth in the expected-goals ranking.

Marseille have taken only three points and sit 13th, although their projected tally is 5.4 points. That would move OM up to ninth, level with Monaco in the alternative table.

Among all 18 Ligue 1 clubs, Troyes are the only side whose real points total precisely matches their expected-points figure. They have four points in both measures.

Nice remain bottom of the actual table on two points, and they are also last in the expected-goals-based ranking with 3.5 projected points after four matches.

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