Milwaukee carries a 2-1 National League Division Series lead into Wednesday night’s Game 4 in San Diego, but the Brewers also arrive with a road postseason burden that has followed the club for seven years. They have lost 12 straight playoff games away from home since winning Game 2 of the 2018 NLCS against the Dodgers, a game started by Walker Buehler.
Buehler will be on the other side again when the Padres try to send the series back to Milwaukee for a deciding Game 5. First pitch is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET, 9 p.m. CT and 7 p.m. PT, with FS1, FOX Deportes and FOX One carrying the game.
The Padres kept their season alive with Tuesday’s Game 3 victory, and manager Craig Stammen pointed to the club’s ability to absorb trouble and keep responding.
“The resilience was there today,” Stammen said. “The way they kept fighting and kept coming back — this team has shown that all season.”
Buehler gets another October assignment
San Diego will hand the ball to Buehler, who was activated from the paternity list two days before his start. The right-hander went 9-6 with a 4.63 ERA during the regular season, but his October background is considerably deeper than those numbers suggest. He owns a 3.04 ERA over 19 career postseason appearances, including 18 starts.
His most recent playoff appearance came in the 2024 World Series, when he closed out a championship for the Dodgers. Buehler posted a 3.62 ERA across 13 starts in the second half this season, and the Padres went 10-3 in those outings. He has evolved from the overpowering version seen earlier in his career, relying more on command and pitch mix, but the stage is nothing new to him.
| Padres starter | Regular-season record | Regular-season ERA | Career postseason ERA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler | 9-6 | 4.63 | 3.04 in 19 appearances |
Milwaukee had not named a starter as of Tuesday night. Manager Pat Murphy has several candidates who can cover multiple innings: left-handers Robert Gasser and Shane Drohan, plus right-hander Chad Patrick. Kyle Harrison also started games during the regular season before slipping out of the rotation late in the year.
Gasser is the most conventional starter in that group. He finished the regular season with a 1.67 ERA across his final six outings, a stretch that began Aug. 26 at Citi Field, when he delivered 5 1/3 innings of emergency relief after Dustin May was struck by a comebacker on the opening pitch against the Mets.
Patrick could make sense as an opener, particularly because three of San Diego’s first four usual hitters swing right-handed. The Brewers used openers three times during last year’s postseason, so a short first look before Gasser enters would not be unfamiliar territory.
Milwaukee’s road streak meets a pressing pitching decision
The Brewers are not facing elimination in Game 4, though another loss would make them the first franchise to drop 13 consecutive postseason road games. The Senators/Twins franchise is currently tied with Milwaukee for the longest such skid.
There is a larger pitching question beyond Wednesday. If Milwaukee loses, Jacob Misiorowski would be lined up to start a winner-take-all Game 5 at home. That would likely push the Brewers’ ace to the middle portion of the NLCS should they advance.
Murphy has not ruled out using Misiorowski for a single inning in Game 4 instead of a between-start bullpen session, depending on how the game develops. Miami used a similar plan with Sandy Alcantara late in the regular season. Aaron Ashby and Trevor Megill did not pitch in Game 3 and would be fresh for Milwaukee’s late innings.
The history offers San Diego some encouragement. In best-of-five postseason series, clubs that lost the first two games before winning Game 3 have forced a Game 5 in 18 of 39 cases, a 46 percent rate. Ten of those teams completed the comeback and won the series.
Padres bullpen remains unsettled
San Diego’s pitching staff was stretched to secure Game 3. Michael King, who started Game 2 on Sunday and worked into the sixth inning, was used for the final two innings Tuesday. The Padres are unlikely to ask him to pitch again on Wednesday.
Mason Miller went on the paternity list before Game 3, leaving his Game 4 availability uncertain. Adrian Morejon could be the closer alternative, but shoulder fatigue also clouds his status. Bradgley Rodriguez, Yuki Matsui and Jason Adam each worked Tuesday, leaving Stammen to acknowledge that Joe Musgrove may be needed in a prominent spot.
“He’s going to have to be one of those guys,” Stammen said of Musgrove.
Gavin Sheets is another unresolved piece for San Diego. He had largely been limited to designated hitter and pinch-hit work while managing a foot problem during the second half, then was removed from the Game 3 lineup because of neck stiffness. The Padres said he was available off the bench Tuesday, but his role for Game 4 remained unclear.
Lineup questions on both sides
Murphy has used three different lineups through the first three games. In Game 3, he moved Brice Turang into the cleanup spot in an effort to make it harder for the Padres to work around Jackson Chourio. Turang had been 0-for-10 in the series and 2-for-40 over his previous 11 postseason games before a seventh-inning single.
Against the right-handed Buehler, Milwaukee could return to the order used against King in Game 2:
- Jackson Chourio, LF
- Brice Turang, 2B
- Jake Bauers, 1B
- William Contreras, C
- Garrett Mitchell, CF
- Christian Yelich, DH
- Sal Frelick, RF
- Cooper Pratt, SS
- David Hamilton, 3B
Contreras has been Milwaukee’s hottest hitter, going 4-for-11 in the series with three hits and his second NLDS home run in Game 3. Yelich is 4-for-10 with a double and his first postseason RBI since Game 7 of the 2018 NLCS. The Brewers need more from their left-handed bats: Turang, Bauers and Mitchell are a combined 5-for-33 with 15 strikeouts in the series.
San Diego elevated left-handed hitter Jackson Merrill to second in the order before Game 3, and he could remain there if Milwaukee opens with a right-hander. Fernando Tatis Jr. leads off, followed by Merrill and Manny Machado, though the lower half remains less certain because of the questions at catcher, designated hitter and Sheets’ health.
The Padres could return to their Game 3 alignment:
- Fernando Tatis Jr., RF
- Jackson Merrill, CF
- Manny Machado, 3B
- Ty France, 1B
- Ethan Salas, C
- Xander Bogaerts, SS
- Dustin Harris, LF
- Samad Taylor, DH
- Jake Cronenworth, 2B
Machado has opened the postseason batting .375 with a 1.212 OPS, while France and Bogaerts have also swung hot bats. Tatis, however, is trying to break out of a rough stretch: after two hits in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series against the Cubs, he is 1-for-18.
For the Brewers, the assignment is plain: end the road drought and finish the series before returning home becomes necessary. For the Padres, Buehler’s experience and whatever remains in an overworked bullpen must be enough to keep October alive for one more night.
