The National League Wild Card race has six games left to shuffle the deck, and the Cubs, Padres and Phillies are still playing for more than a ticket to October. Seeding, home field and a potential trip to Atlanta all remain on the line as the regular season reaches its final week.
Chicago and San Diego entered the stretch at 87-69, with Philadelphia one game back at 86-70. None had officially locked down a Wild Card berth, though the Cubs and Padres could clinch as early as Tuesday, while the Phillies could get there Wednesday.
Quick facts
- The Cubs have three games against Miami, then three at Boston.
- The Padres finish with three at the Dodgers and three at Arizona.
- The Phillies close with three against Milwaukee and three against Tampa Bay.
- Arizona remains alive, four games behind Philadelphia and five behind Chicago and San Diego, with its postseason chance listed at 5.7% on Monday afternoon.
- The Dodgers, Brewers and Braves have already wrapped up their division titles.
The Dodgers hold a four-game cushion over Atlanta for the No. 2 National League seed, putting Los Angeles in position for the Division Series bye. That leaves the Braves as the likely No. 3 seed, a destination none of the Wild Card clubs will be eager to draw.
A three-way tie remains very much possible. Each of the Cubs, Padres and Phillies can finish between 87 and 92 victories, and a 90-72 finish for all three is one plausible outcome if Chicago and San Diego each go 3-3 while Philadelphia posts a 4-2 week.
Cubs hold the key in a three-club tie
In a three-team deadlock, the combined head-to-head results can decide which club advances first when one team owns the best record against the other two. Chicago put itself in a strong position months ago, taking the season series from both of its competitors.
The Cubs went 5-1 against San Diego and 6-1 against Philadelphia. That 11-2 mark would send Chicago to the No. 4 seed in a three-way tie, giving the Cubs home field for every game of the best-of-three Wild Card Series.
Once Chicago takes the first Wild Card position, the Phillies and Padres would be left to settle the remaining two seeds. Philadelphia swept all six meetings with San Diego, taking two three-game sets played from May 25 through June 4.
That would place the Phillies at No. 5 and send them to Chicago for the Wild Card Series. San Diego would land at No. 6, likely opening its postseason on the road against Atlanta.
The same season-series results also give every possible two-team tie a clear answer. Chicago owns the edge over either Philadelphia or San Diego, while Philadelphia has the advantage over the Padres.
For now, the standings are close enough to keep all those routes open. The Cubs have the inside track to host, the Phillies carry a decisive card against San Diego, and the Padres face the toughest closing path with games against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks before the National League bracket is set.
