Guardians Enter ALCS vs. Rays After Record 21-Strikeout Game 5

Cleveland’s ride out of the ALDS came with a record-setting punchout total. The Guardians fanned 21 hitters in Saturday night’s Game 5, the most strikeouts ever recorded by a club in a nine-inning regular-season or postseason game. Gavin Williams supplied 12 of them, tying the second-highest total by a pitcher in a winner-take-all postseason game.

The human wrinkle is waiting on the other side of the bracket. Tampa Bay brought the Majors’ lowest strikeout rate and lowest swing-and-miss rate into this American League Championship Series. Cleveland’s arms just made history by missing bats; now they have a best-of-seven assignment against a club built to put the ball in play.

A contact club meets a power staff

The Rays carried the third-best starting-pitching ERA in baseball during the regular season, with Cleveland ninth. Tampa Bay will hand Game 1 to Drew Rasmussen, who took a no-hit attempt into the eighth inning against the Yankees in the ALDS opener and finished with 10 strikeouts. Freddy Peralta, acquired from the Mets at the Deadline, has also added another gear, pairing his fastball with increased changeup usage. Nick Martinez, Ian Seymour and Griffin Jax give the Rays more rotation options behind Rasmussen.

Cleveland’s front end is led by All-Star rookie Parker Messick and Williams. Joey Cantillo, Foster Griffin and Tanner Bibee combined for 72 regular-season starts, giving the Guardians workable depth behind their top two arms.

The scheduling advantage belongs to Tampa Bay. Rasmussen is ready for Monday and could conceivably work three times in the series. Williams, if Cleveland keeps him on regular rest, would not be available before Thursday’s Game 3 and may have only two outings available.

Late innings should be a hard place to breathe. Cade Smith and Bryan Baker tied for the American League lead with 41 saves apiece. Smith struck out 107 in 74 regular-season innings, then got 10 of his 13 ALDS outs by strikeout. Baker became one of four relievers ever to save each of his club’s first three games of a postseason.

Cleveland has more established October relief depth behind its closer. Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski and Tim Herrin have all appeared on Guardians playoff clubs in each of the past three years. Smith has recorded more than three outs 15 times this season, postseason included; Baker has done it twice.

Tampa Bay’s relief picture has a few moving pieces. Cam Booser and Kevin Kelly combined for only four outs in the ALDS, while Jax and Seymour worked effectively out of the bullpen. One of those two may be needed for a Game 4 start in Cleveland. That could put added weight on Tyler Wells, who owns a 2.38 ERA but has not pitched since mid-September because of forearm tightness.

The infield carries stars and contrasts

At catcher, Liam Hicks gives Tampa Bay a hot, contact-heavy option. Since arriving from Miami at the Trade Deadline, Hicks posted an .819 OPS in 41 Rays games. From Aug. 4 through the end of the season, only Victor Mesa Jr. had a better Tampa Bay OPS, at .987. Hicks also ranked among the game’s toughest qualified hitters to make miss.

Patrick Bailey went 5-for-15 in the ALDS for Cleveland, though he and Austin Hedges did not provide their usual defensive value during the regular season. Bailey posted a +7 fielding run value and Hedges a -2, each the lowest mark of his career. Since the Deadline, the clubs received similar defensive production from their catchers, but Hicks brings the stronger offensive case.

Jonathan Aranda gives the Rays a clear advantage at first base. His 121 OPS+ did not match his 145 mark from 2025, but he still reached a career-high 22 homers. His solo shot off Gerrit Cole supplied the only run in Tampa Bay’s 1-0 ALDS Game 1 win.

Cleveland hoped Nathaniel Lowe would improve first base after acquiring him from the Reds, but his production fell from a 126 OPS+ in 83 Cincinnati games to an 83 OPS+ over 43 games with the Guardians. David Fry remains a possible platoon choice against lefties after striking out in his lone ALDS at-bat.

Second base tilts toward Cleveland. Rookie All-Star Travis Bazzana finished at a 110 OPS+ after a September in which he hit six homers, slugged .613 and posted a .978 OPS. The 2024 first overall pick faced five left-handers in the ALDS and should see a more favorable platoon setup against Tampa Bay’s right-handed-heavy staff.

Richie Palacios started all three Tampa Bay ALDS games at second and drove in two runs with a single against Yankees ace Cam Schlittler in Game 2. Ben Williamson could be the right-handed answer against lefty starters, though a hamstring injury limited him to five games after Aug. 5.

Shortstop is the series’ closest infield call. Brayan Rocchio quietly became one of baseball’s 10 most valuable shortstops, hitting 15 homers with a 99 OPS+ while producing +13 outs above average. Among Guardians position players, only Steven Kwan accumulated more FanGraphs WAR.

Taylor Walls offers a different kind of value for Tampa Bay. His 11 bunt hits ranked fourth in the Majors, and his 12 sacrifice bunts trailed only Milwaukee’s David Hamilton. Walls ranked second among infielders in Defensive Runs Saved because of his anticipation and positioning, even as Statcast viewed his work less favorably. The Rays can live with his light bat when he can change an inning with his glove or his ability to move runners.

At third, José Ramírez remains the heartbeat of Cleveland despite a down regular season by his standards. The seven-time All-Star finished with 12 homers and a 95 OPS+, his weakest offensive line since 2015. Then came the ALDS turnaround: Ramírez reached base seven times and collected four extra-base hits from Games 3 through 5, including the decisive two-run homer in Game 5.

Junior Caminero still presents Tampa Bay’s bigger season-long threat. The 24-year-old former Cleveland farmhand hit 42 home runs and remains one of the sport’s premier young power bats.

Outfield choices could shape the series

Cleveland has a decision in left field. Angel Martínez emerged during the regular season with 18 homers and a 110 OPS+, including an .807 OPS in 48 games after the All-Star break. But the switch-hitter went 0-for-15 in the ALDS and did not start Game 5, when Kwan moved to left and Petey Halpin took center. Martínez still figures to receive most of the playing time based on the larger body of work.

Chandler Simpson owns Tampa Bay’s left-field job. He did not create much havoc in the ALDS, but he remains one of baseball’s most dangerous runners and trails only Luis Arraez among the game’s hardest hitters to strike out. Simpson also improved sharply in the field, reaching +8 outs above average, good for the 94th percentile.

Kwan is the better all-around center-field presence. After a quiet first half, he hit .353 with an .875 OPS following the break, and his 85 hits led qualified Major League hitters in that stretch. He plays the same throwback brand of contact baseball as Simpson, but Kwan also finished among seven outfielders with at least 10 assists, a weapon against Tampa Bay’s aggressive runners.

The Rays used Jonny DeLuca in center for all three ALDS games, even against right-handed starters, rather than veteran Cedric Mullins, who made 122 regular-season starts there. Both are elite defenders: DeLuca had +13 outs above average and Mullins +11. DeLuca’s 101 OPS+ gives Tampa Bay a little more offense.

In right, Victor Mesa Jr. has become one of Tampa Bay’s most important late-season stories. The 25-year-old rookie was designated for assignment shortly before Spring Training, returned from the injured list Sept. 1 and produced a 1.015 OPS over the final month, 12th among qualified hitters. He hit the eventual winning homer against Max Fried in ALDS Game 3 and helped ignite a Game 1 rally with a throw that cut down Austin Wells at third. Ryan Vilade, who homered off Fried in Game 3, should see action against left-handed pitching.

Chase DeLauter provides Cleveland with its own 25-year-old rookie standout. He led the Guardians with a 131 OPS+, adding 16 homers and 30 doubles while posting a swing-and-miss rate in the 93rd percentile of the league.

Jo Adell adds a needed right-handed thump for Cleveland after his midseason arrival. In 48 Guardians games, he recorded a 108 OPS+ and slugged .660 against left-handed pitching. Still, Yandy Díaz supplies Tampa Bay with the steadier right-field answer. At age 35, Díaz was 24 percent better than league average offensively, combining 22 homers with a 14.8 percent whiff rate.

Tropicana Field gets the first turn

Tampa Bay swept Cleveland in three games at Tropicana Field in late July as part of its 5-1 season-series advantage. The final game of that set looked like a preview of this matchup: Rasmussen threw seven scoreless innings, while Messick permitted one run in 7 2/3.

The Rays have the Game 1 starter, the season-series edge and an offense designed to resist Cleveland’s strikeout-heavy attack. The Guardians have Ramírez coming off a signature October week, a deeper proven relief group and enough contact of their own to make every game uncomfortable. Both organizations have been looking for another path back to the World Series. Tampa Bay has the slight edge, with a six-game series looking like the narrowest route to its first championship appearance since 2020—and a chance at the franchise’s first title.