The Wild Card round is finished, and Saturday brings four Division Series matchups with very different October pressures: Cleveland’s pitching against Chicago’s breakout power, Tampa Bay’s balance against New York’s star power, the defending champion Dodgers against an undermanned Atlanta club, and Milwaukee’s regular-season machine facing a San Diego team that has caught fire at the right time.
American League: Guardians and White Sox bring contrasting strengths
Chicago’s climb has been one of the season’s biggest turns. The White Sox lost 121 games only two years ago, yet now arrive in the ALDS as the No. 6 seed with a young, powerful lineup. Cleveland, the No. 2 seed, closed hard under manager Steven Vogt, winning 11 of its last 15 games and locking up the AL Central on the next-to-last day of the schedule.
- Chicago will lean on the power supplied by Munetaka Murakami, who hit 35 homers, Miguel Vargas with 33, and Colson Montgomery with 31.
- Cleveland counters with a rested staff fronted by rookie left-hander Parker Messick and right-hander Gavin Williams, plus Cade Smith after his September honor as AL Reliever of the Month.
- The Guardians also enter with more postseason experience, and José Ramírez appeared to find his stroke during the final two weeks. Cleveland posted the American League’s seventh-best September slugging percentage despite finishing with 85 wins.
The edge goes narrowly to Cleveland, largely because its rotation and bullpen give Vogt more ways to control a short series. Dan Rivkin saw the Guardians as too deep at both ends of the pitching staff, while Michael Weilamann noted that the clubs played each other closely during the regular season but Cleveland’s arms could quiet Chicago’s home-run threats.
Not everyone is ready to dismiss the White Sox. Elizabeth Muratore pointed to Messick and Williams as a clear Cleveland advantage, but wondered whether a Guardians offense that has gone quiet in recent Octobers can keep up with Chicago’s energetic young group.
American League: Rays hold home field against Yankees
The other ALDS renews an AL East rivalry and again frames a smaller-market club against a high-payroll Yankees roster. Tampa Bay and New York met in the 2020 Division Series, when the Rays survived in five games. This year’s matchup carries a similar split in opinion, though Tampa Bay gets the nod.
- The Yankees swept Boston in the Wild Card Series, with their rotation showing the kind of dominance that makes New York dangerous in any format.
- Questions remain about Aaron Judge, the three-time AL MVP, including whether he can play and how much he can contribute if he does.
- Tampa Bay’s starters were second in the AL with a 3.51 ERA, trailing only the Yankees’ 3.30 mark. Drew Rasmussen leads a Rays staff that compares favorably with New York’s group.
- The Rays also own the field advantage and went 5-2 against the Yankees at Tropicana Field during the season.
Ed Eagle described the matchup as a David-and-Goliath setup, except Tampa Bay is far stronger than a conventional underdog while New York may be diminished. Bryan Horowitz favored the steadier club at home, and Christina DeNicola called the Rays perhaps the most complete team still playing.
Jen Vestuto made the case for New York’s counterpunch: the Wild Card sweep showed that other Yankees can deliver in big spots, and the rotation alone gives them a legitimate path through Tampa Bay.
National League: Dodgers’ rotation meets Braves’ injury trouble
Los Angeles enters as the two-time defending World Series champion and a heavy favorite over Atlanta. The Dodgers’ advantage starts on the mound, where their options are unusually deep for a five-game series.
- Tarik Skubal is scheduled for Game 1, followed in the Dodgers’ rotation by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow.
- Atlanta used Chris Sale to start its Wild Card Series opener against Philadelphia, then called on him again to finish off the Phillies in Thursday’s Game 3. He cannot take the ball before Game 2 of the NLDS.
- Tyler Mahle, who worked Game 2 in the Wild Card round, is unavailable until Game 3, leaving the Braves likely to open the series with bullpen coverage.
- Atlanta’s bats also sputtered against Philadelphia. Outside of Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II, the rest of the lineup went 14-for-75, a .187 average.
Shohei Ohtani is dealing with knee and biceps concerns, and Los Angeles has an older lineup than in recent seasons. Still, Atlanta’s pitching shortages and offensive issues pushed the Dodgers into a commanding position in the projections. A trip to the NLCS would be Los Angeles’ ninth in 14 years.
Jonathan Mayo said Atlanta’s shortage of healthy pitching would be difficult to overcome against a club of this caliber. Casey Drottar cited the early postseason struggles of Ronald Acuña Jr. and Drake Baldwin, while Linus Lawrence stressed Los Angeles’ home field, set rotation and unbeaten postseason record in the Ohtani era.
Anthony DiComo offered the dissenting view, suggesting the Dodgers look more vulnerable than they have in several years and that Sale could be enough to change the series.
National League: Brewers and Padres bring heat to Milwaukee
San Diego arrives as one of baseball’s hottest clubs, while Milwaukee brings the best regular-season record in the majors and the comfort of a first-round bye. It shapes up as a series with elite bullpens, hard throwers and little margin for a slow start.
- The Padres’ offense has surged behind Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and a revived Jackson Merrill.
- Milwaukee has Jacob Misiorowski, the leading NL Cy Young Award candidate, lined up for Game 1 and potentially for a decisive Game 5 because the Brewers did not play in the Wild Card round.
- Logan Henderson has provided an important lift after Kyle Harrison’s struggles, giving Milwaukee another emerging arm behind Misiorowski.
- San Diego plans to start trade-deadline pickup Robbie Ray in Game 1, but the former Cy Young winner owns a 5.02 ERA in nine starts since joining the Padres.
- Michael King gives San Diego a reliable option, and Nick Pivetta has improved since returning from the injured list, though the rest of the veteran starting choices have been less effective.
Both relief groups rank among baseball’s best, with Mason Miller giving San Diego perhaps the sport’s most overpowering closer. That could make the opening innings decisive. Milwaukee’s offense has its own answers in Jake Bauers, enjoying a career season, Brice Turang’s emergence as a run producer, and Jackson Chourio’s power-and-speed game.
Milwaukee also has the final-game advantage if the series reaches the limit: Game 5 would be played in Milwaukee. Brian McTaggart believes this could be the Brewers’ breakthrough year. Josh Kirshenbaum’s view is that San Diego can shorten games with its bullpen, but Milwaukee has enough early offense to win before that relief edge takes over. Martin Montalto expects Misiorowski to dominate twice and the Brewers to find one more victory.
Allison Waxman backed San Diego after its Wild Card showing, arguing that the Padres are operating on a different level entering the Division Series.
