Napoli’s first five league matches have produced seven goals, a return that is neither alarming nor fully convincing. The 1-1 draw in Florence again showed a side capable of finding the net, but not yet regularly creating the kind of chances that settle difficult afternoons before they become complicated.
The decision
The central issue is not Napoli’s finishing. Their seven goals have come from 7.18 expected goals, a near-perfect match between output and the quality of opportunities created. The concern lies earlier in the move: Napoli are not producing enough clear openings in the first place.
Last season, the team scored 58 times from 51.38 xG, outperforming that total by almost seven goals. They averaged 13.2 shots per match. This season’s average is marginally higher, at 13.8, so a lack of attempts is not the explanation. Rather, too many of those efforts are arriving from less favourable areas and not from the middle of the penalty area.
That distinction has become important in a season where margins have already been narrow. Napoli can still take difficult chances, but high-probability opportunities have not been arriving often enough. When they do, they carry greater weight.
The clearest example came in Milan against Inter. With the score at 2-2, André-Frank Zambo Anguissa missed an opportunity valued at 0.93 xG, the sort of opening that would normally be expected to end in a goal. It could have delivered victory; instead, the match remained level.
Massimiliano Allegri has repeatedly spoken about aggression, anger and determination. Behind that language is also a technical demand: identify the earlier pass, select the more productive option and time runs into space with greater precision. Napoli’s difficulty is not a lack of players able to score, but the final choice that puts those players in front of goal.
Sunday’s picture
The draw at the Franchi followed the same pattern. Napoli scored and found room to threaten Fiorentina again, but did not turn their periods of control into a decisive second goal. The build-up was present; the simple chance was often missing.
Last season’s conversion rate of 15.8 per cent reflected a team that gave real value to its attempts. The current shot volume suggests Napoli do not necessarily need to shoot more. They need to reach the shot in better conditions, closer to goal and with fewer decisions left to chance.
Seven goals in five rounds therefore describe a side still searching for sharper attacking construction. Napoli have shown that goals are available within this group, but the next step is to create the openings that allow their best attackers to finish without having to manufacture something exceptional every time.
