The 2026-27 MVP race opens with no shortage of established names, but the cleanest early read is this: team wins will still decide who gets the strongest runway. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is chasing a third straight trophy, Nikola Jokić is looking to resume a historically steady run after last season’s injury interruption, and Giannis Antetokounmpo arrives in Miami with a new stage. Behind them, a deep group of stars has a realistic path to the ballot if its club climbs the standings.
The repeat winners set the early standard
Gilgeous-Alexander enters the season as the reigning back-to-back MVP and has the profile to make it three in a row. Over the past four seasons, he has averaged 31 points while shooting 53 percent from the field, and Oklahoma City is again built to clear 55 wins. The argument against him will center on voter fatigue, though that concern tends to disappear when a player remains efficient, available and attached to an elite record.
Jokić has a chance to put another marker on an already unusual résumé. A win or runner-up finish would make him the first player ever to place first or second in MVP voting for seven consecutive years. He had led the 2026 MVP Ladder before a leg injury roughly two months into last season knocked him out of that spot, allowing Gilgeous-Alexander to take control of the race.
- Jokić, now 31, remains the NBA’s cumulative leader in points, rebounds and assists for the 2020s.
- The Denver center is still a nightly triple-double threat, but the Nuggets need enough wins to keep pace with Oklahoma City and San Antonio.
- A fourth MVP is very much in play if Denver makes its record an easy part of his case rather than a weakness.
- Gilgeous-Alexander’s bid depends on the same familiar formula: big scoring, elite efficiency and another Thunder season near the top of the West.
Antetokounmpo brings the other two-MVP pedigree to the field. He has finished within the top four of MVP voting in each of the five seasons since his consecutive awards and owns seven All-NBA First Team selections. His first year with the Heat adds an edge to the campaign: a healthy Giannis remains a double-double machine, a scoring and rebounding title threat, and an impact defender. If Miami lands around the East’s top five, he should be right in the center of the discussion.
East contenders need their teams to follow
Jalen Brunson begins with the strongest recent postseason momentum after winning Finals MVP while guiding the Knicks to the championship in June. His case is straightforward: stay among the league’s five leading scorers and push New York to the East’s No. 1 seed. Both targets are attainable, and meeting them would make Brunson difficult to ignore.
Cade Cunningham is coming off a breakthrough season that ended with a fifth-place MVP finish. Detroit again projects as a serious candidate to own one of the NBA’s best records, and Cunningham’s command of the offense gives him a chance to be the best player on the league’s best regular-season team. He is among the rare point guards who consistently raise the level of everyone around him, and there is belief he can exceed last season’s production.
Donovan Mitchell has a similar team-success case in Cleveland. He has averaged 26 points across four Cavaliers seasons, while Cleveland has recorded at least 50 victories in three of those years. If he remains the Cavs’ leading scorer, delivers late-game shotmaking and keeps them in the race for the East’s top seed, he belongs in the top tier of challengers.
Boston’s situation puts more responsibility in Jayson Tatum’s hands. With Jaylen Brown now in Philadelphia, Tatum has a clearer offensive runway in his first complete campaign following Achilles surgery. Paul George, his new running mate, has already indicated he intends to help push Tatum into the MVP conversation. The Celtics’ ceiling is the open question; reaching 50 wins in a crowded conference would strengthen Tatum’s return to the race after he was a top-10 contender two years ago.
Western stars have room to climb
Luka Dončić should have the raw production to make a serious run. With the Lakers leaning on him as their primary engine much as Dallas once did, he is positioned to chase another scoring crown after taking two of the past three. He should also sit near the assist leaders and rank unusually high among guards on the glass. Dončić has never won MVP, which could add some overdue-recognition appeal, but Los Angeles must supply enough victories to turn his numbers into a winning case.
Anthony Edwards may benefit from Minnesota’s new setup. LaMelo Ball’s presence gives the Timberwolves a true ballhandler capable of initiating possessions, allowing Edwards to spend less time creating every look from scratch and more time attacking as a scorer and finisher. Edwards has averaged 28 points in each of the last two seasons despite Minnesota’s previous point-guard limitations. A jump in scoring, paired with a Wolves season in the 55-win range, would place him firmly on the MVP board.
Victor Wembanyama has the widest two-way impact of any young contender. He is favored to lead the league in blocks, should rank high among rebounders, and has expanded his offensive game considerably since entering the NBA. San Antonio has the depth and roster trajectory to reach 55 to 60 wins or better.
- Wembanyama’s main hurdle could be workload management if the Spurs again limit his regular-season minutes.
- Reduced minutes could leave his counting statistics behind those of the other leading candidates.
- San Antonio’s depth could also mean Wembanyama is not always its highest-volume offensive option, even if he remains its most dominant overall player.
- If his minutes rise and the Spurs become a top seed, the first MVP could arrive sooner than expected.
The next group is waiting for an opening
The preseason field extends beyond the 10 leading names. Philadelphia guard Tyrese Maxey is coming off a season in which he averaged 28 points and 6.6 assists, while new teammate Jaylen Brown finished sixth in last year’s MVP voting. Tyrese Haliburton, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry also remain capable of forcing their way into the conversation if health, production and team record line up.
The first official MVP Ladder, with the candidates placed in order rather than simply grouped as preseason possibilities, is scheduled for Friday, Nov. 6. Until then, the early notebook is crowded: three former winners, several players with championship momentum, and a San Antonio giant whose minute total may matter almost as much as his numbers.
