American Football

NFL Week 5 Predictions: Cowboys-Bucs, London Game and Injury Watch

By Hugo Brennan

NFL Week 5 Predictions: Cowboys-Bucs, London Game and Injury Watch

Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season opens Thursday night with the Dallas Cowboys favored to outscore the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while Sunday’s schedule includes a London game, several division tests and major quarterback injury questions.

Thursday: Cowboys vs. Buccaneers

  1. Dallas is the pick at home despite continued concerns on defense. Dak Prescott has a deep group of weapons, led by CeeDee Lamb, who posted 17 catches, 189 yards and a touchdown in last week’s 34-30 victory over Houston.

  2. Through four games, Lamb has 37 receptions, 498 yards, 28 first downs and four touchdown catches. Tampa Bay’s receivers — Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, Ted Hurst, Tez Johnson and Kameron Johnson — have combined for 44 receptions, 501 yards, 22 first downs and two scores.

  3. The Buccaneers have yet to reach both 200 net passing yards and 150 net rushing yards in a game this season. Even if Tampa Bay dedicates extra attention to Lamb, Dallas can turn to George Pickens, Jake Ferguson and Javonte Williams.

  4. Buccaneers quarterback Jalon Daniels is preparing for his second career start. Only one undrafted rookie quarterback has beaten the Cowboys as a starter: Washington replacement player Ed Rubbert during the 1987 strike season.

Sunday: International game and early window

  1. Jaguars over Eagles in London: Philadelphia arrives short-handed. Lane Johnson has retired, Cam Jurgens was traded, and Saquon Barkley is among several starters dealing with injuries. Jacksonville has held every opponent below 21 points and has recorded an NFL-low four three-and-outs on offense. The Jaguars make the London trip annually and will remain overseas for an additional week, while Nick Sirianni has not previously taken the Eagles to the United Kingdom.

  2. Bengals over Dolphins: Cincinnati is 2-2 after consecutive losses marred by Joe Burrow’s fourth-quarter turnovers, both committed on first down in opponent territory. Burrow is now 1-35 when his team has trailed at any stage in the final eight minutes, though the number does not fully define his late-game ability. The Bengals’ rushing attack has stalled, while Ja’Marr Chase is in concussion protocol and Tee Higgins is managing groin and neck issues. Still, Cincinnati is expected to have enough against winless Miami.

  3. Patriots over Raiders: Drake Maye led New England’s upset of previously unbeaten Buffalo, his best performance of the young season. Las Vegas, which entered Week 4 at 3-0, pushed Kansas City before Kenneth Walker III helped the Chiefs pull out a rivalry win despite Kirk Cousins outperforming Patrick Mahomes. New England’s defense is the most established unit in this matchup, while the Raiders’ ground game has faded since Ashton Jeanty’s strong Week 1.

  4. Vikings over Saints: Minnesota’s offense must produce more than field goals, but it owns an advantage over New Orleans in both passing and rushing efficiency. Aaron Jones has averaged 108.3 scrimmage yards per game since Jordan Mason went on injured reserve after Week 1, and Justin Jefferson’s possible return from an ankle injury would aid quarterback Kyler Murray. The Saints surrendered 40 points to Atlanta, and quarterback Tyler Shough now faces Brian Flores’ aggressive defense. Minnesota has blitzed on 70.5 percent of dropbacks and generated pressure at a 46.8 percent rate, both the highest league marks since 2018. Shough has not faced a blitz rate higher than 38.5 percent in any career start, while Alvin Kamara is nursing a back injury. The Vikings can reach 5-0 before their bye.

  5. Browns over Jets: Cleveland has rebounded from an opening loss to Jacksonville with three straight wins. Deshaun Watson has completed at least 72 percent of his throws in three of four games, aided by young targets Denzel Boston, KC Concepcion and Harold Fannin Jr. The loss of Mason Graham hurts the defense, but the Browns face a Jets team coming off an alarming 23-12 defeat to Chicago. New York had the ball for only 17:15, gained seven first downs to the Bears’ 34 and ran just 32 offensive plays. Cleveland can improve to 4-1 for the first time since 2020.

  6. Steelers over Colts: Pittsburgh has had extra time to regroup after its Thursday night loss in Cleveland, a game marked by frustration among veteran players. Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor is heating up after carrying the Colts to a London victory, but quarterback Daniel Jones has become turnover-prone. The Steelers have forced at least two takeaways in every game, while Indianapolis has not won the turnover battle since November 2025. Ball security could settle a significant AFC postseason race matchup.

  7. Texans over Titans: Houston is a surprising 0-4 despite C.J. Stroud’s strong play. Its defense ranks in the 20s in total defense, scoring defense and EPA per play, and it has failed to protect late leads in three losses. Coach DeMeco Ryans will call the defensive plays this week against Tennessee. The Titans are 0-4 and remain the NFL’s only offense without a 300-yard game this year.

  8. Commanders over Giants: New York is 3-1 but escaped Arizona only because Jameis Winston threw a game-changing pick-six on the final play. Washington could get Jayden Daniels back after his dislocated left elbow forced Athan Kaliakmanis into extended duty overseas. The Commanders have numerous injuries, but Daronte Jones’ pressure-oriented defense could create problems for Winston. Washington’s rebuilt offensive line must handle a Giants front headed by Abdul Carter and Defensive Rookie of the Year contender Arvell Reese. Since Dan Quinn became head coach, Washington is 4-0 against New York.

  9. Bears over Packers: Chicago is averaging 196.3 rushing yards per game, the second-highest rate by any team over the past 40 seasons behind only the 2019 Ravens’ 206.0. Green Bay ranks 28th against the run and lost linebacker Edgerrin Cooper to a season-ending Achilles injury. The Packers are also last in the NFL at 58 rushing yards per game. Chicago could again dominate possession, though Tyson Bagent must avoid mistakes in his second start while facing a Green Bay defense that blitzes 39.3 percent of the time.

  10. Broncos over Chargers: Denver has scored only 13 first-half points and needed two comebacks from double-digit deficits to reach 2-2. First-year offensive coordinator Davis Webb must find answers, but Los Angeles has not established itself as a fast-starting offense either and did not top 20 points until last week. The Broncos could be missing cornerbacks Patrick Surtain II, who has an ankle injury, and Riley Moss, who is dealing with a rib issue. The Chargers, however, expect to be without both starting tackles, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. Denver’s best path is creating pressure on Justin Herbert, whose season has begun poorly.

Sunday afternoon and prime time

  1. Lions over Cardinals: Arizona has allowed at least 30 points in each of its past three games. Detroit has scored and surrendered at least 24 points in all four contests, pointing toward a high-scoring game. Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta give the Lions ample firepower after last week’s uneven loss in Carolina. Jacoby Brissett has found success with Trey McBride and Michael Wilson, but Arizona likely needs touchdowns rather than field goals to keep pace.

  2. Seahawks over 49ers: Seattle still leads the NFL in fewest total yards allowed per game at 246.8, fewest yards per play at 4.0 and fewest passing yards allowed at 144.8. The Seahawks also share the league lead with six interceptions. Brock Purdy has not been sacked this season, but he struggled against Seattle in 2025, totaling two touchdown passes, four interceptions and a 72.5 passer rating in three meetings. Seattle shut out Purdy’s touchdown passing in both the Week 18 meeting and the Divisional Round. San Francisco’s defense has the league’s seventh-lowest pressure rate at 31.6 percent, making it difficult to count on the 49ers forcing mistakes from Sam Darnold at Lumen Field.

  3. Falcons over Ravens: Bijan Robinson has powered Atlanta’s two most recent wins, rushing for 339 yards and four touchdowns in road blowouts of Green Bay and New Orleans. Baltimore may be without Lamar Jackson, who injured his ankle in the Ravens’ previous game. Tyler Huntley would make his first start of the season if Jackson cannot play. Huntley won both of his Ravens starts in 2025, but he attempted just one pass beyond 10 air yards after replacing Jackson last week; three attempts traveled zero to nine yards and five were thrown behind the line of scrimmage. The Ravens could also use Cam Jurgens at center. Atlanta has scored consistently with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback, and the Falcons’ defense could focus heavily on Derrick Henry if Jackson sits.

  4. Atlanta left tackle Jake Matthews is also in danger of missing a milestone. A Sunday appearance would be his 200th consecutive start, but he exited Monday night’s game with a groin injury. His active streak is the longest in the NFL.

Monday night: Rams vs. Bills

  1. Rams over Bills: Matthew Stafford carries an even 6-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio into a favorable matchup with a Buffalo defense that allowed Drake Maye’s best game of the season last week. The Bills rank in the bottom 10 in both scoring defense and total defense, while the Rams are among the top 10 in both categories.

  2. Los Angeles must clean up its own errors after surviving Philadelphia despite a 415-172 advantage in total yards. Turnovers and special-teams mistakes nearly cost the Rams, and Josh Allen can punish that sort of sloppiness. Allen has four giveaways over his past two games — three interceptions and one lost fumble — while Buffalo faces the difficult task of covering Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.

  3. Sean McVay’s club appears to be the more complete team entering the game, provided it avoids the mistakes that turned last week’s matchup into a fourth-quarter rally.