San Diego can write Randy Vásquez into its 2027 rotation, and Nick Pivetta may join him if the Padres are satisfied with the condition of his right elbow. After that, the clubhouse board gets crowded with questions: recoveries, opt-outs, free agency and a veteran still deciding whether he wants another run.
That is familiar winter territory for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, whose clubs have regularly needed starting pitching and have regularly found unconventional ways to acquire it. This time, however, the Padres may be looking for more than depth. They could need two starters capable of handling meaningful rotation innings.
The rotation pieces already in the room
Vásquez has earned a measure of trust. Across 2024 and 2025, he made 60 appearances, including 49 starts, and posted a 3.87 ERA. When San Diego’s pitching group was stretched thin, the right-hander helped keep it together. He profiles as a reasonable No. 4 starter for 2027.
Pivetta’s situation hinges on health, not contract language. His player option converted to a club option after he spent more than 130 days on the injured list with a right flexor strain. He returned Sept. 7 and finished strongly, carrying a 2.05 ERA after his activation. The Padres won each of his six starts following that return, and he also appeared twice in the postseason.
There are two years and $32 million left on Pivetta’s contract. If the medical outlook is clean, that is a worthwhile commitment for San Diego. If the Padres have doubts, they could view that money as resources for another starter with a similar role.
| Pitcher | 2027 outlook | Key recent figures |
|---|---|---|
| Randy Vásquez | Established rotation option | 3.87 ERA in 60 games, 49 starts, across 2024-25 |
| Nick Pivetta | Club option dependent on elbow evaluation | 2.05 ERA after Sept. 7 return; six team wins in six starts |
| Joe Musgrove | Potential return after elbow surgery | Returned to pitch in the postseason after missing time since 2024 |
| Yu Darvish | Undecided on comeback | Two contract years remain; turns 41 next summer |
Health questions behind Vásquez and Pivetta
- Joe Musgrove got back on the mound during the postseason after right elbow surgery, his first game action since 2024. His stuff looked encouraging, though stretching back into a full starter’s workload remained a challenge.
- Musgrove could take on that buildup again next season, but the Padres cannot yet treat him as a bankable rotation slot.
- Yu Darvish is even less certain. He underwent right elbow surgery in October 2025 and has not made a decision on attempting a comeback.
- Darvish has two seasons remaining on his contract, but age is part of the equation as well; he will be 41 next summer.
Those are different cases, but both leave San Diego short on certainty. A healthy Musgrove would change the winter math. A returning Darvish could do the same. Neither can be assumed at this point.
Michael King could test the market
Michael King appears positioned to become one of the most prominent starting pitchers available. He can leave the three-year contract he signed last December, walking away from the remaining two years and $58 million in exchange for a $5 million buyout.
The 31-year-old gave himself a strong case to do just that. He made 32 starts with a 3.21 ERA during the regular season, then was dominant in October, allowing a 0.64 ERA over 14 innings. A longer deal could be waiting on the open market.
Still, King made clear that San Diego has become meaningful to him despite the distance from his Rochester, New York, roots.
“This place has been tremendous for me,” King said. “It is a long way from where I grew up, but it feels like I have another home on the West Coast. I have loved it here, and I would like for it to keep going.”
Free-agent decisions and younger candidates
Walker Buehler represents the clearest reunion candidate among the other free agents. He arrived on a Minor League deal in spring camp, made the club and turned in 32 starts during a comeback season that became one of San Diego’s better stories. He will command more money this time around, but the Padres have reason to keep the conversation open.
- Casey Mize arrived at the Trade Deadline and recorded a 7.46 ERA in 10 starts before a right ankle sprain sent him to the injured list.
- Lucas Giolito, signed in April, lost most of the season to right elbow inflammation.
- Griffin Canning worked in 30 games, including 11 starts, and finished with a 5.68 ERA.
- Robbie Ray came over from the Giants at the Deadline and posted a 5.02 ERA in 43 innings. The left-hander could make sense at the right price, especially for a staff that is heavily right-handed.
JP Sears and Luis Gutierrez also deserve a look in camp. Sears will have no Minor League options remaining in 2027, making his audition especially consequential. Gutierrez, the organization’s No. 12 prospect, must be placed on the 40-man roster or left exposed in the Rule 5 Draft.
The Padres can reasonably begin with Vásquez and, provided Pivetta checks out medically, Pivetta. From Musgrove, Darvish, Sears and the rest, they may be fortunate to uncover one back-end starter they can rely upon. That still leaves a substantial assignment for Preller: add at least two pitchers this winter, preferably arms suited for the front or middle of the rotation rather than more emergency coverage.
