San Diego gets the familiar October assignment on Tuesday night: win once, then worry about the next one. Milwaukee arrives at Petco Park carrying a 2-0 National League Division Series lead after rallying in both games at home, while the Padres must turn a frustrating pair of late losses into a clean, urgent nine innings.
Game 3 puts Milwaukee within reach
The Brewers and Padres resume the best-of-five series Tuesday at 9:30 p.m. ET, 8:30 p.m. CT and 6:30 p.m. PT. FS1, FOX Deportes and FOX One will carry the game nationally.
History gives Milwaukee a heavy edge. Clubs that have opened a best-of-five postseason series with two victories have finished the job 83 times in 93 tries, an 89 percent rate. In Division Series played under the current 2-2-1 arrangement, teams winning the first two games at home are 33-3 in the series.
The most recent club to escape an 0-2 deficit in a best-of-five set was the 2017 Yankees, who lost the first two games in Cleveland before advancing from the American League Division Series.
- Milwaukee posted 42 comeback victories during the regular season, tied for the fifth-highest total in the Majors.
- The Brewers have added two more comeback wins in this postseason series.
- San Diego second baseman Jake Cronenworth described the situation plainly: “It’s win or go home from here, so we don’t have another option.”
Jackson Chourio, the difference-maker in Game 2, said the Brewers have leaned on their clubhouse identity when games have turned late. “We know our strengths and how to pick each other up,” Chourio said through an interpreter. “Everybody is behind everybody else, and we know how to win.”
May gets the ball against Pivetta
Dustin May will make Milwaukee’s first postseason start of the series, facing Padres right-hander Nick Pivetta. Both clubs have reason to believe their starter can set a different tone than the wild finish that decided Game 2.
- Brewers: Dustin May — May owns a 3.14 ERA in 16 career appearances, including 13 starts, against San Diego. He was Milwaukee’s marquee Trade Deadline acquisition and allowed three earned runs in 13 innings over his first two outings with the club. His final eight regular-season appearances went the other direction, however, as he went 1-2 with a 7.61 ERA. May has been especially effective against the Padres this year, recording a 1.23 ERA in three starts split between the Cardinals and Brewers.
- Padres: Nick Pivetta — Pivetta returned in early September after nearly five months out with a right-elbow flexor strain and has registered a 1.64 ERA across five starts since coming back. He finished 3-2 with a 2.86 ERA. In his Game 2 start of the Wild Card Series, Pivetta yielded one run in 3 1/3 innings before San Diego went quickly to a rested bullpen while trying to clinch. He did not face Milwaukee in the regular season. His career 8.76 ERA against the Brewers is inflated by a difficult rookie outing with Philadelphia in 2017.
May’s recent rough patch came with visible frustration; at one point he said, “It sucks to be sucking right now.” Milwaukee is banking on his October experience and his success against this opponent to help him turn the page.
Projected lineups and late-inning choices
Milwaukee’s Game 2 lineup was quiet early against Michael King before breaking through later. The Brewers could send the same group out behind May, with Chourio leading the way.
| Brewers | Position | Padres | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio | LF | Fernando Tatis Jr. | RF |
| Brice Turang | 2B | Dustin Harris | LF |
| Jake Bauers | 1B | Manny Machado | 3B |
| William Contreras | C | Ty France | 1B |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | Jackson Merrill | CF |
| Christian Yelich | DH | Gavin Sheets | DH |
| Sal Frelick | RF | Xander Bogaerts | SS |
| Cooper Pratt | SS | Ethan Salas | C |
| David Hamilton | 3B | Jake Cronenworth | 2B |
San Diego rookie catcher Ethan Salas has worked extensively with Pivetta down the stretch, including during a pair of rehab outings when Salas was still at Triple-A El Paso. That pairing makes Salas a logical choice behind the plate. Gavin Sheets is the leading candidate for the designated-hitter spot.
If May exits early, Milwaukee has fresh multi-inning alternatives in Robert Gasser, Shane Drohan and Kyle Harrison. Closer Trevor Megill and setup arms Abner Uribe and Aaron Ashby also benefited from the travel day after pitching scoreless ball in each of the first two games. Brewers relievers have covered nine shutout innings in the series.
San Diego’s off-day should restore its bullpen as well. Mason Miller remains the ninth-inning option, with Adrian Morejon working ahead of him. Right-handers Bradgley Rodriguez and Jason Adam can be used earlier, while left-hander Yuki Matsui is available if Milwaukee stacks left-handed hitters.
Chourio is rolling as San Diego searches for offense
Chourio enters Game 3 with a .958 OPS through two games and consecutive multi-RBI performances. His Game 2 effort was the fifth multi-RBI postseason game of his young career. He now has 15 career playoff RBIs, one behind Ryan Braun’s Brewers franchise record of 16.
- Brice Turang is still looking for his first hit of the series after going 0-for-7.
- Ty France has opened the postseason 7-for-15 for San Diego and has a case for an eighth hit and a home run as well.
- Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts each have five postseason hits while grinding through difficult plate appearances.
- Austin Hays is 0-for-7 in the postseason, while Cronenworth is 1-for-13.
Milwaukee’s injury watch includes third baseman Joey Ortiz, who entered the series dealing with abdominal, groin and right-knee concerns. He ran well in Game 1, and his Game 2 absence appeared driven by the matchup rather than a new setback.
For the Padres, reliever Jeremiah Estrada remains out with a right-shoulder impingement, a significant absence for the relief corps. Joe Musgrove’s unexpected return after nearly two years recovering from Tommy John surgery could soften that loss. Sheets and Miguel Andujar have recently returned from injuries, though Sheets remains limited to designated-hitter and pinch-hit work because of a left-foot problem that has persisted through much of the second half.
