Nick Martinez will take the ball first for Tampa Bay on Tuesday, with Carlos Rodón opposing him in the opener of a separate-admission doubleheader at Yankee Stadium. The second game brings Drew Rasmussen against Max Fried, and the American League East may not need much more than those first nine innings to find its answer.
The Rays arrived in the Bronx six games ahead of the Yankees with seven games left on their schedule. One Tampa Bay win in this four-game, three-day set ends New York’s division hopes, delivers the Rays their first AL East title since 2021 and sends the Yankees into the Wild Card Series.
The result
Tampa Bay has occupied first place for most of the season and has not been knocked from the top spot since returning there on June 27. New York has remained close enough to make this week matter, but its series loss in Phoenix, paired with Tampa Bay’s strong final homestand, left little room for a late charge.
The Yankees must sweep all four games to keep the division race going. The Rays need only one victory, which would also secure the season series between the clubs.
There is plenty attached to that single Rays win. Tampa Bay would earn a bye past the best-of-three Wild Card Series, plus home field in the AL Division Series and, should it advance, the American League Championship Series. Yankees manager Aaron Boone has called the assignment a “tall order,” but his club is trying to prevent a division-clinching celebration on its own field.
New York began the season hoping to move beyond last year’s unsuccessful chase of the Blue Jays. Instead, it is staring at another October route requiring a Wild Card Series survival.
The rotation next
Martinez starts the first game Tuesday with an additional day of rest. The veteran right-hander has been Tampa Bay’s steady source of innings, and the Rays are 22-7 in his starts this season.
Rasmussen follows in the nightcap on four days’ rest, only the seventh time he has worked on that schedule this year. Tampa Bay has won each of his last 11 starts, a streak dating to July 9. Left-hander Ian Seymour is slated for Wednesday, with right-hander Freddy Peralta lined up for Thursday.
Rodón gets the opening assignment for the Yankees, then Fried takes the second game. Both left-handers have worked through injury issues this season and enter the series in good September form. Rodón owns a 2-0 record and a 2.08 ERA across three September starts after putting left elbow inflammation behind him. Fried has a 1-0 mark and a 1.69 ERA in three September outings after two injured-list stints caused by a bone bruise in his pitching elbow.
Gerrit Cole is set for the third game, followed by AL Cy Young Award frontrunner Cam Schlittler in Thursday’s finale.
Tampa Bay brings the hotter club
The Rays went 8-1 on their final regular-season homestand and have captured four consecutive series, beating the Braves, Astros, A’s and Red Sox along the way. Since a four-game sweep at Fenway Park immediately after the All-Star break, Tampa Bay has gone 39-18, the best record in baseball since July 20.
The rotation has helped drive that run. Rays starters carry a 2.81 ERA this month, second in the Majors only to the Yankees. The offense has produced in different fashions, from quick early rallies to two walk-off home runs by Junior Caminero, an AL MVP candidate.
There are still details Tampa Bay would like cleaned up before October. Leadoff hitter Yandy Díaz has posted a .229/.286/.357 line in September, a quiet month for a player who sets the lineup’s tone. Closer Bryan Baker has been effective enough at 3-0 with one save and a 1.42 ERA this month, though his four walks exceed his two strikeouts in seven appearances. With the postseason approaching, the Rays will want cleaner innings from the Major League saves leader.
New York waits for its offense to join the pitching
The Yankees have lately leaned on their pitching while waiting for the lineup to fully break through. Ben Rice hit his team-leading 39th home run, nearing a Spring Training prediction from Boone. Rice joked that Boone had him short by “one or two” from the total he prefers, putting his push for No. 40 squarely into this series.
Austin Wells has hit three homers in his past six games. Heliot Ramos has gone deep in each of his last two games, and his production could become especially important if New York is to make a meaningful October run.
The larger concern remains Aaron Judge’s right calf strain. The Yankees have been tightly guarded about the issue, and the split without their centerpiece is plain: they are 48-41 in games Judge does not play and 41-25 when he is in the lineup.
The bullpen has supplied other questions. Brent Headrick’s velocity has declined after a Major League-high 79 appearances, raising the possibility of fatigue. Tim Hill has not generated ground balls with his usual consistency, while Michael Fulmer allowed the deciding homer in Arizona.
That leaves the Yankees with a simple, unforgiving assignment under the Stadium lights: get the first game, then keep winning. Tampa Bay needs one opening. New York needs four straight airtight nights.
