Tarik Skubal’s final outing before free agency lasted five innings and cost him two runs against Milwaukee in the National League Championship Series, a loss that closed an eventful 2026 season. The left-hander now reaches the market as its clear headliner, coming off a year that included elbow surgery, a midseason return, a trade to Los Angeles and another run of front-of-the-rotation work.
The result
Skubal went 12-7 with a 2.72 ERA over 158 2/3 innings in 2026, striking out 186 hitters while posting a 0.96 WHIP, a 155 ERA+ and 5.2 fWAR. He will be 29 on Opening Day 2027.
His season paused for six weeks after a procedure on his left elbow, but he was back by the middle of June and quickly resumed pitching like an ace. Detroit dealt him to the Dodgers before the Trade Deadline, giving Los Angeles a three-month look at the premier starter about to enter free agency.
In 10 regular-season starts for the Dodgers, Skubal carried a 2.61 ERA. He allowed one run across six innings to beat Atlanta in his only National League Division Series appearance, then faced Milwaukee in the NLCS. That five-inning, two-run effort became his last start before reaching the open market.
| 2026 regular season | Tarik Skubal |
|---|---|
| Record | 12-7 |
| ERA | 2.72 |
| Innings | 158 2/3 |
| WHIP | 0.96 |
| Strikeouts | 186 |
| ERA+ | 155 |
| fWAR | 5.2 |
The longer view is even stronger. Since returning from flexor tendon surgery in July 2023, Skubal has gone 50-20 with a 2.47 ERA and 21.2 fWAR in 103 starts. That body of work has put him in the conversation as baseball’s best active starter, not merely the best arm in this winter’s class.
The rotation next
The Dodgers have every reason to try to keep the lefty they acquired in July. They have nine players approaching free agency, but no one else in that group carries Skubal’s value. He was not eligible for a qualifying offer after the trade, meaning a club signing him will not forfeit a Draft pick. That detail should only make an already broad market more active.
Skubal did not discuss his plans after Los Angeles was eliminated, though he made clear how much he enjoyed the stop: “An incredible organization, teammates and fan base. I was honored to wear L.A. on my chest and cap.”
Detroit remains part of the emotional picture. Skubal said he would welcome a return to the Tigers, even after the club chose to move him for three prospects in early August. A reunion would be a startling turn after that trade, and it would likely require Detroit to compete at the very top of the bidding. If the pitcher insists on the absolute largest offer, that path may be difficult for the Tigers.
The Mets loom as a potential wild card after missing the postseason for a second consecutive year. Owner Steve Cohen has shown he can spend at historic levels, most notably on Juan Soto, while president of baseball operations David Stearns has generally avoided massive commitments to starting pitchers. Skubal would test that preference. New York already has young arms in Nolan McLean, Zac Thornton and Christian Scott, and adding an established ace could put a different shape on that group.
Chicago also has a clear need for innings and upside. Shota Imanaga, Clay Holmes, Kevin Gausman, Matthew Boyd and David Peterson are all expected to reach free agency, leaving the Cubs with a substantial rotation problem to solve. The question is whether the club will stretch beyond its usual financial range; Skubal’s price could be at least double the value of any previous Cubs contract.
Toronto has pursued marquee names in recent winters, including Shohei Ohtani and Soto, and finally landed a major target last offseason when it signed Dylan Cease. With rotation help again on the shopping list, the Blue Jays have a history that makes a call on Skubal easy to imagine.
Philadelphia belongs in the longer-shot group, but it cannot be dismissed. Dave Dombrowski has never been reluctant to spend, Zack Wheeler has only one year remaining on his deal, and the Phillies possess enough rotation depth to consider moving Cristopher Sánchez or Jesús Luzardo if Skubal were added. Agent Scott Boras has a long working history with Philadelphia through deals involving Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos and Taijuan Walker; Jhoan Duran and Bryson Stott are also Boras clients.
The price of an ace
Skubal’s résumé has few performance concerns. The real medical question comes with his left arm. This year’s NanoScope elbow procedure remains relatively new, and it joins a history that includes Tommy John surgery in college and flexor tendon surgery in 2022.
That medical file may be the one point of caution attached to an otherwise rare free-agent case. Skubal is widely regarded as the most accomplished starting pitcher to reach the market in several years, and the timing of his signing could become nearly as important as the dollars.
The current collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1. Labor uncertainty could lead some large-market clubs to move more carefully than they would in a normal winter, and that date may become an informal decision point for Skubal’s market.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 10-year, $325 million Dodgers contract is the largest guarantee ever given to a pitcher. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander share the record average annual value for a pitcher at $43.33 million. Skubal’s next deal has a chance to clear both marks.
That is the weight of the winter ahead: a 29-year-old left-hander with Cy Young credentials, a dominant recent track record and just enough health history to make every front office study the same file twice. The Dodgers got the last close look. The rest of the league now has its turn.
