Fantasy draft rooms tend to tighten up early, but the 2026-27 board has a deep middle where former first-round production is still sitting past the opening turn. Health questions, age curves, new uniforms and role changes are pushing several high-end names down Yahoo’s average-draft-position board.
The clearest swing bets begin with Tyrese Haliburton at 13.3 ADP. After losing all of last season to injury, the Pacers guard is cleared to play and carries the profile of an elite fantasy point guard if he returns at full speed. That makes him a possible second-round bargain for managers wary of the medical layoff.
Early-round values with first-round ceilings
| Player | Team | Yahoo ADP | Draft case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Haliburton | Indiana Pacers | 13.3 | Cleared after missing the entire previous season; his return could restore top point-guard output. |
| Jamal Murray | Denver Nuggets | 20.8 | Has delivered first-round-level value for extended stretches despite injuries and the attention surrounding Nikola Jokić. |
| Stephen Curry | Golden State Warriors | 22.9 | Entering the year at 38, Curry played only 43 games in an injury-hit 2025-26 but remained highly productive when available. |
| Josh Giddey | Chicago Bulls | 23.0 | His starting role turned him into a reliable all-category contributor, and he is set to steer a younger reworked Bulls group. |
| Austin Reaves | Los Angeles Lakers | 23.6 | Scoring, playmaking, steals and efficient shooting give him a real path to first-round-caliber returns. |
| Trae Young | Washington Wizards | 24.1 | He appeared in only 15 games last season, but had averaged more than 10 assists in each of the prior three years. |
| Devin Booker | Phoenix Suns | 25.3 | Phoenix’s primary scorer is expected to stay at point guard, preserving both his scoring load and assist opportunities. |
| LaMelo Ball | Minnesota Timberwolves | 25.6 | Availability remains the issue, not his production; a new start in Minnesota could bring a different version of his game. |
| Bam Adebayo | Miami Heat | 26.5 | Still one of the league’s most rounded centers, though his field-goal percentage has dipped below 50% in consecutive seasons. |
| Domantas Sabonis | Sacramento Kings | 28.9 | Trade talk and a 19-game season cloud the outlook, but few centers offer his recurring triple-double potential. |
Young’s pre-injury assist peak remains the marker here: he led the NBA with 11.6 assists per game in 2024-25. Booker’s point-guard deployment matters for the same reason. Meanwhile, Ball and Sabonis are the more volatile selections in this tier, each capable of carrying a roster when healthy but carrying obvious availability or situation concerns.
Adebayo’s changing shot diet is worth tracking. He hit just 44.2% from the field last season after an increased volume of 3-point attempts, but his rebounding, defense and passing still make him a useful big-man play.
Frontcourt depth and new-team upside
| Player | Team | Yahoo ADP | Draft case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Mobley | Cleveland Cavaliers | 29.3 | A steady multi-skill big who can stretch the floor; free-throw accuracy is the main blemish. |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | 30.8 | Blocks, boards, scoring and 3-point range give him a high ceiling at center. |
| Jaylen Brown | Philadelphia 76ers | 31.9 | He posted a career-high 28.7 points per game last season and arrives in Philadelphia as a two-way leader. |
| Kawhi Leonard | Toronto Raptors | 34.2 | Leonard played 65 games and reached a career-best 27.9 points per game before joining a balanced Toronto lineup. |
| James Harden | Cleveland Cavaliers | 35.3 | At 37 and no longer the top offensive option, Harden has slid down boards despite his long record of elite production. |
| Paolo Banchero | Orlando Magic | 35.8 | Entering Year 5, Banchero can fill the box score even when the efficiency is uneven. |
| Trey Murphy III | New Orleans Pelicans | 36.3 | High-volume 3-point shooting is backed by helpful rebounds, assists and steals. |
| Lauri Markkanen | Utah Jazz | 36.4 | Injuries have interrupted recent seasons, but a stronger supporting cast could reopen his high-end production lane. |
| LeBron James | Philadelphia 76ers | 38.0 | At 41, James is unlikely to log all 82 games, but his across-the-board numbers and field-goal percentage remain valuable. |
Holmgren’s combination of rim protection and perimeter touch remains unusual for a big, while Mobley brings a safer nightly floor even with his free-throw limitations. Murphy is the cleaner perimeter specialist among this group, but his secondary counting stats keep him from being only a shooting-category pick.
Philadelphia’s new look features both Brown and James, with Brown coming off the best scoring season of his career. Leonard’s 65-game season is another reminder that the old availability narratives do not always tell the whole draft story. Harden is the opposite kind of calculation: the role has changed, but the stat-line foundation has not disappeared.
Later picks carrying major risk-reward
| Player | Team | Yahoo ADP | Draft case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | Portland Trail Blazers | 40.1 | Fresh off a breakout campaign, Avdija enters his seventh season with broad category appeal. |
| Walker Kessler | Los Angeles Lakers | 41.9 | The 25-year-old missed nearly all of last season, but is healthy and now shares the floor with Luka Dončić. |
| Anthony Davis | Washington Wizards | 42.7 | Per-game production is still elite, though he has played 40 games or fewer in three of the past six seasons. |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | Utah Jazz | 47.5 | His 48-game 2025-26 season included reduced averages amid injuries and roster instability in Memphis. |
| Kyrie Irving | Dallas Mavericks | 49.0 | He missed all of last season and has topped 60 appearances only once over the past nine years. |
| Ivica Zubac | Indiana Pacers | 61.4 | A quieter center option whose work on the interior can still produce sizable totals. |
Davis is the biggest health-versus-talent call in this range. Over the last six seasons, he has cleared 56 games only once, but the per-game ceiling remains among the league’s best. Irving has an equally sharp durability warning after his lost 2025-26 campaign, yet a healthy return on a retooled Dallas roster would quickly change the value equation.
Kessler’s path is tied to a healthier season and the playmaking gravity Dončić brings to the Lakers. Jackson gets a fresh runway in Utah after injuries and shifting circumstances affected his final Memphis season. Avdija supplies a more recent breakout profile, while Zubac is the late center for managers who prefer reliable interior work over a louder name.
The draft-board lesson is straightforward: the discounts are often attached to legitimate concerns, not accidents. But managers willing to absorb the injury history of Haliburton, Ball, Davis or Irving—or trust veterans such as Curry, Harden and James for fewer total games—can find production that plays well above the pick number.
