The 2026-27 NBA season opens with the center of gravity shifted hard toward new addresses. Giannis Antetokounmpo is in Miami, LeBron James and Jaylen Brown have joined Joel Embiid in Philadelphia, Kawhi Leonard has gone back to Toronto, Ja Morant is in Portland and LaMelo Ball now shares Minnesota’s backcourt with Anthony Edwards. Oklahoma City and San Antonio begin at the front of the queue, but the reshaped East has no shortage of teams built to make the spring complicated.
Key takeaways
- Oklahoma City carries the league’s best projection at 60.7 wins, narrowly ahead of San Antonio at 59.1.
- Philadelphia’s new starting group features James, Brown, Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe, but health and lineup chemistry will be immediate tests.
- Miami put Antetokounmpo beside Bam Adebayo, while Milwaukee begins a transition season without the player who led it in value for 11 straight years.
- Minnesota traded Julius Randle and Naz Reid for Ball, creating a high-voltage guard pairing but thinning the club’s frontcourt.
- Indiana’s first regular-season game comes in New Orleans, 487 days after Tyrese Haliburton last played in Game 7 of the 2025 Finals.
East notebook: new contenders, old questions
New York Knicks: The defending champions are projected for 51.7 victories and a 97.7% playoff chance. Jalen Brunson remains the club’s late-game organizer, but the Knicks lost Mitchell Robinson to Boston and will need Karl-Anthony Towns, Andre Drummond and occasional small-ball looks from OG Anunoby to cover the center minutes. Mike Brown’s group posted a record plus-14.9 playoff point differential last season. Contract situations around Towns, Josh Hart, Miles McBride and Tyler Kolek will sit in the background after extension talks were pushed deeper into the season.
Philadelphia 76ers: Philadelphia projects at 47.5 wins with an 88.3% chance to reach the postseason, and every practice wrinkle will draw attention around its rebuilt core. Brown arrives after averaging 29 points, seven rebounds and five assists in Boston. James is still coming off an All-NBA season at age 41, while Maxey scored 28.3 points per night last year and Edgecombe produced 16.0 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.2 assists as a rookie. Nick Nurse must sort nine newcomers into a workable rotation. Embiid has missed 150 games over the last three seasons, and backup center Ariel Hukporti suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in preseason.
Boston Celtics: The Celtics moved Brown for Paul George and added Robinson, then watched their former Finals MVP land with a conference rival. Boston still projects for 51.3 wins and has a 97.2% playoff forecast. Jayson Tatum is now 18 months removed from his Achilles injury, and Joe Mazzulla’s teams have won at least 56 games in each of his four seasons. The offense will again lean into volume 3-point shooting with Tatum, George, Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser and Baylor Scheierman. Robinson and Neemias Queta give the club a physical center tandem, but Boston was last in free-throw attempts last season and lost one of the league’s best foul drawers when Brown departed.
Detroit Pistons: Detroit is projected for 49.4 wins after Cade Cunningham moved into the MVP conversation last season. Cunningham hit better than 40% from 3-point range over 14 playoff games, and the Pistons are banking on further growth from Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren rather than asking their lead guard to create everything again. J.B. Bickerstaff’s defense should remain a foundation even after Isaiah Stewart and Tobias Harris left. John Collins replaces Harris in the starting group, while Isaiah Joe gives the second unit a proven shooter who has cleared 40% from deep in four consecutive seasons.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Cleveland made the conference finals, then chose continuity around Evan Mobley over a larger swing for Antetokounmpo or Brown. James Harden joins Donovan Mitchell, Mobley and Jarrett Allen in a starting group that includes four former All-Stars. The Cavaliers also acquired Peyton Watson, a wing they expect to become a two-way difference-maker. The trade and salary moves stripped out much of the bench, leaving Jaylon Tyson, Tyrese Proctor and Meleek Thomas with more responsibility. Cleveland allowed 14.2 made 3-pointers per game last season, fifth most in the league, after previously building its identity on top-tier defense.
Toronto Raptors: Leonard’s return puts Toronto’s title-era memories back on the calendar, but his workload will be monitored closely at age 35. The Raptors already ranked fifth in defensive rating at 113.0 last season; adding Leonard next to Scottie Barnes gives them a big, switchable defensive front. Their offensive issue is shooting: Toronto ranked 25th with 11.3 made 3s per game. Leonard’s pull-up game should help, provided he is available. The Raptors project for 45.5 wins and a 75.6% playoff chance, with RJ Barrett eligible for an extension entering the final season of his deal.
Indiana Pacers: Haliburton’s return from an Achilles tear changes the temperature in Indiana. He has been playing five-on-five since April, though his preseason work showed there is still rhythm to reclaim. Rick Carlisle will have to adapt an offense that once ran fast and five-out, now with Ivica Zubac replacing Myles Turner at center. Haliburton and Turner ranked among the league’s most efficient high-volume pick-and-roll pairings, and the Pacers will try to build similar action with Zubac. Indiana is projected for 42 wins and has a 47.3% playoff outlook.
Miami Heat: Miami’s Antetokounmpo deal gives Erik Spoelstra an imposing defensive spine with Giannis and Adebayo inside, plus Andrew Wiggins and Davion Mitchell on the perimeter. The Heat ranked 13th defensively last year and have the personnel to climb much higher. The harder question is shot creation after Tyler Herro was included in the deal and Norman Powell left in free agency. Klay Thompson, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bobby Portis were added to provide spacing around Antetokounmpo. Miami projects for 45.6 wins. Antetokounmpo could wait on an extension and instead position himself for 2027 free agency.
Atlanta Hawks: Atlanta posted a 108.6 defensive rating after the All-Star break, second only to Oklahoma City, and added Luguentz Dort to a perimeter group already featuring Dyson Daniels. Jalen Johnson is now the franchise centerpiece at 24, with Nickeil Alexander-Walker coming off a Most Improved Player season. The concern is behind the front line: Onyeka Okongwu is 6-foot-10, Jock Landale is the backup, and the Hawks no longer have Kristaps Porzingis protecting the basket. Atlanta projects for 42.2 wins and holds a 48.7% chance to make the playoffs.
Orlando Magic: Orlando fired Jahmal Mosley after surrendering a 3-1 playoff lead to Detroit and hired Sean Sweeney as head coach. The roster remains large, led by Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr. and Nikola Vucevic, but the same shooting issue remains even after paying a major price for Desmond Bane last year. The Magic have not finished in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency since 2012, Dwight Howard’s final season in Orlando. They project for 42.9 wins, with a 54.4% playoff probability.
Washington Wizards: Anthony Davis finally takes the floor in Washington after arriving at last season’s trade deadline without appearing in a game. He enters without an extension and has averaged 47 appearances across the last six years. Trae Young, Davis and No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa give Brian Keefe far more offense than the team had while ranking 29th in points per possession last season. The talent upgrade also creates a pecking-order problem for Kyshawn George, Tre Johnson, Alex Sarr and Deandre Ayton. Washington projects for 32.4 wins, although its playoff odds remain just 1.8%.
Charlotte Hornets: Charlotte won 44 games and a play-in game last season, then cashed out on LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges. Kon Knueppel and Brandon Miller now move to the front of the franchise timeline. The Hornets were the league’s top 3-point shooting team last year and remain loaded with perimeter options after bringing in Coby White, Naz Reid, Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neale. Dennis Schroder is another addition aimed at improving rim pressure. Charlotte projects for 39.9 wins and owns three potential first-round selections next summer.
Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks have no Antetokounmpo and no settled identity. Taylor Jenkins inherits a deep but awkward roster featuring Tyler Herro, Myles Turner, Kyle Kuzma, Kevin Porter Jr., Gary Trent Jr., Caris LeVert and young pieces obtained in the Giannis trade, including Kel’el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis and Jaime Jaquez Jr. Milwaukee could look substantially different by February, with multiple veterans carrying trade value. Its 26.3-win projection and 0.1% playoff probability reflect a club entering evaluation mode rather than chasing a quick replacement for its former superstar.
Brooklyn Nets: Brooklyn is projected for 25 wins and carries no playoff probability, but the backcourt development plan is clear. Rookie Mikel Brown Jr. joins second-year guard Egor Demin, who hit 38.5% from 3 last season but took 72% of his attempts from deep. Julius Randle and Michael Porter Jr. bring scoring punch and could also become trade variables, especially with Porter on an expiring contract. The Nets still control nine tradable first-round picks and 19 second-rounders over the next seven years.
Chicago Bulls: Caleb Wilson, the No. 4 pick in the 2026 draft, is the central development project in Chicago. The Bulls will live with the rough possessions as he plays alongside Matas Buzelis and Josh Giddey. Norman Powell is the primary veteran scorer, while Jalen Smith could challenge Nic Claxton for the starting center role after shooting 37% from deep last season. Chicago projects for 28.3 wins, with only a 0.2% playoff chance, and has enough future picks and cap room to consider a larger move around Powell later in the year.
West notebook: Oklahoma City leads a crowded race
Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder are the league’s projected No. 1 team at 60.7 wins and a 99.9% playoff chance. Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins were moved in salary-clearing deals, yet Shai Gilgeous-Alexander still has Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso and a rising Cason Wallace around him. Wallace, last season’s steals leader, is positioned for a larger workload after averaging 26.6 minutes. Jared McCain, Ajay Mitchell and rookies Aday Mara and Bennett Stirtz face a difficult path to regular minutes. Oklahoma City’s defense led the NBA by wide margins in each of the past two years, though rebounding remains a concern after its 49.0% rebound rate ranked 22nd.
San Antonio Spurs: San Antonio is projected at 59.1 wins, and the early rotation watch centers on three-guard units featuring De’Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle around Victor Wembanyama. Coach Mitch Johnson has room to experiment because Wembanyama changes every lineup equation. Castle posted 16.7 points, 5.3 rebounds and 7.4 assists last season, while Keldon Johnson comes off a Sixth Man of the Year campaign. The Spurs have limited frontcourt depth behind Wembanyama, Tobias Harris and Luke Kornet, placing rookie Tarris Reed Jr. in a possible spot-duty role. Wembanyama’s plus-17.0 net rating was second best among rotation players last season.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Edwards and Ball make Minnesota one of the league’s most entertaining new guard pairings, but the fit will be tested once possessions become scarce. Ball averaged 20.1 points, 7.1 assists and 3.8 made 3s in only 28.0 minutes last season, then completed the year with 56 straight appearances. Minnesota gave up Randle and Reid in the deal, leaving Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels and Jonathan Kuminga to handle a thinner frontcourt. McDaniels is coming off a breakout playoff stretch that included a 32-point closeout game against Denver. The Wolves project for 47.8 wins with a 95.5% playoff chance.
Denver Nuggets: Denver’s championship trio of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon is still elite when healthy, posting a 125-51 regular-season record together. The problem is how little margin exists behind them. The Nuggets dealt Peyton Watson rather than match Cleveland’s offer sheet, and their bench again projects as a major issue. Denver was plus-10.8 points per 100 possessions with Jokic last season and minus-6.5 without him. Cameron Johnson joins Jokic, Murray and Gordon as one of only four Denver players rated above average by estimated plus-minus. The Nuggets project for 48.7 victories.
Houston Rockets: Fred VanVleet is back after missing last season with an ACL tear, and Houston expects Kevin Durant and the rest of the roster to slide into more natural offensive roles with a true lead guard again available. The Rockets have led the league in offensive rebounding for two straight seasons, grabbing 37.4% of their misses last year, the best rate since 2003. Their size is considerable, with Durant, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr. and Steven Adams all standing 6-foot-11. Houston gave away 15.4 turnovers per game last season, a major factor in 18 regular-season losses after double-digit leads. It projects for 46.7 wins.
Los Angeles Lakers: This is Luka Doncic’s team now. He led the league in scoring last season despite a hamstring injury ending the Lakers’ playoff push, and he is paired again with Austin Reaves, who scored a career-best 23.3 points per game. Walker Kessler gives Los Angeles a 7-foot-2 vertical target and a needed rim protector after the team finished 20th in defensive rating. Kessler has held opponents to 54.6% shooting in the restricted area over his career when serving as the closest defender, trailing only Holmgren and Wembanyama among qualifying players. The Lakers project for 45.4 wins and an 88.3% playoff chance.
Portland Trail Blazers: Portland’s new ownership has faced arena disputes, layoffs and a failed broadcaster hire, while first-time coach Micah Nori takes over a roster with a crowded perimeter. Morant joins Damian Lillard, returning from an Achilles injury, and Deni Avdija, who led all NBA starters with 27.7 drives per 100 possessions last season. The playmaking is obvious; the turnover risk is, too. Portland finished last in giveaways and 28th in 3-point percentage last year. Donovan Clingan, Toumani Camara and Jrue Holiday add defensive backbone, but the Blazers’ 41.4-win projection leaves them fighting for play-in position rather than security.
Phoenix Suns: Devin Booker remains the stabilizer after Phoenix won 45 games in Jordan Ott’s first season. Jalen Green played only 32 games because of recurring right hamstring trouble, and his fit becomes more important after the Suns traded Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neale for Miles Bridges. The projected starting group lacks dependable shooting: Booker hit 33% from deep last year, Green 31%, Dillon Brooks 34%, Bridges 33%, and Oso Ighodaro barely shot from distance. Phoenix also enters thin at center after Mark Williams underwent shoulder surgery and Nick Richards was traded. Rookie Khaman Maluach may need to grow quickly. The Suns project for 40.4 wins.
Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry committed to a two-year extension that carries him through a 20th NBA season, but the roster opens short-handed. Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody are expected back around midseason after serious knee injuries, while Kristaps Porzingis is out indefinitely with a private health issue. Curry, Draymond Green, Butler, Al Horford and new defensive voice Frank Vogel give Golden State a deep pool of basketball intelligence, but age and availability could define its ceiling. The Warriors project for 43.6 wins, with trade assets and large expiring contracts available if the front office decides to push for one more Curry-era run.
Utah Jazz: Utah is trying to turn from deliberate losing toward actual competition after adding Jaren Jackson Jr. before last season’s deadline and drafting Darryn Peterson at No. 2. Peterson joins Lauri Markkanen, Keyonte George and Ace Bailey in a high-octane scoring group. George averaged 23.6 points and 6.1 assists while improving his field-goal percentage to 45.6. The center spot is unsettled after Walker Kessler’s exit and a preseason toe injury to Jusuf Nurkic. Jaxson Hayes, Kyle Filipowski, Mo Bamba and occasional Jackson-at-center units will have to hold up until Utah finds a long-term answer. The Jazz project for 35.4 wins.
Dallas Mavericks: Cooper Flagg is the reason to watch Dallas. The 19-year-old joined Doncic as the only teenagers to average at least 20 points, six rebounds and four assists in a season, and he now gets Kyrie Irving back as a veteran partner. Flagg averaged 27.8 points, 6.9 rebounds and 4.7 assists during a 10-game run last spring. The Mavericks’ center rotation is a problem, with Dereck Lively II still recovering from a second right-foot procedure and Daniel Gafford carrying his own durability concerns. Lottery pick Morez Johnson Jr. started the preseason opener at center. Dallas projects for 33.8 wins.
Memphis Grizzlies: Morant, Jackson and Desmond Bane are all gone, leaving Tuomas Iisalo with a fresh rebuild led by No. 3 pick Cameron Boozer and Zach Edey. Boozer is positioned as a Rookie of the Year candidate, while Edey must prove he can stay on the floor after appearing in only 11 games last season before ankle surgery. Jerami Grant, Isaiah Stewart, Ty Jerome and Scotty Pippen Jr. are the veteran support around a young group that includes Cedric Coward and Jaylen Wells. Memphis projects for 29.4 wins but has enough rotation depth to make a surprise play-in push if its young core accelerates.
New Orleans Pelicans: Zion Williamson played 62 games last season, his second-highest total, and enters his eighth NBA year in shape. Health remains the overriding issue for a roster that includes Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, Jeremiah Fears, Derik Queen and newcomer Bennedict Mathurin. First-year coach Jamahl Mosley has talent but little room for injuries or developmental stalls in the West. Williamson and Queen posted a minus-12.3 net rating together last year, so lineup balance will matter. New Orleans projects for 28.1 wins and could face a deadline decision on whether to move one of its long-standing core players.
LA Clippers: The Clippers enter under major off-court pressure: owner Steve Ballmer and senior executives are suspended, the franchise is forfeiting five future first-round picks, and federal investigations remain active. On the floor, Kawhi Leonard is gone, James Harden was moved at the deadline, Max Strus has a partially torn plantar fascia, and Brandon Ingram is sidelined with a right heel injury and partial Achilles tear. Tyronn Lue’s coaching will be central to holding the group together. The Clippers project for 30.1 wins, and several veterans, including Brook Lopez, Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr., could be deadline candidates.
Sacramento Kings: Sacramento is handing the offense to 19-year-old Darius Acuff Jr., who will start at point guard on opening night and receive a long development runway. Acuff averaged 23.5 points and 6.4 assists at Arkansas, becoming the first SEC player since Pete Maravich to lead the conference in scoring and assists in the same season. Zach LaVine, Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk remain veterans on a roster in transition, but LaVine’s $48.9 million expiring contract and Sabonis’ extension status will shape the business side. The Kings project for an NBA-low 21.7 wins, though a 30-win season driven by youth growth would be seen as progress.
