The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ 24-19 home loss to the Cleveland Browns on Sunday wiped out thousands of survivor-contest entries and extended a troubling stretch against the spread for a team favored by 8.5 points. Tampa Bay had been selected by 27% of entries in ESPN.com survivor pools, making it the second straight week in which the most popular choice was eliminated.
The Buccaneers’ defeat came after a lengthy weather delay and marked their 11th consecutive game without covering the spread, matching the longest such skid of the Super Bowl era. Tampa Bay was also one of five Sunday favorites to lose outright, alongside the Baltimore Ravens, Minnesota Vikings, Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers.
In the $1,000-entry Circa Survivor contest, 6,601 entries relied on Tampa Bay in Week 2. Only the San Francisco 49ers, who beat the Miami Dolphins, were chosen more often. The Buccaneers’ loss left those 6,601 entries eliminated, along with 42 contestants who did not submit a selection before the deadline.
Survivor field faces early upheaval
The early losses have reshaped a Circa Survivor competition that began with 25,017 entries and a winner-take-all prize of $25.017 million. Participants must select one NFL team to win each week and cannot use that club again during the season. To claim the prize, an entry must survive all 18 regular-season weeks as well as special Thanksgiving and Christmas mini-weeks.
Jacksonville was the leading Week 1 selection, with 8,121 entries, or 32.5% of the field, picking the Jaguars against Cleveland. The Chargers were next with 7,585 selections, followed by the Pittsburgh Steelers at 4,013. Some players used the opening games of the season: 174 advanced with Seattle and 10 with San Francisco, while 49 entries were knocked out after choosing the Los Angeles Rams and 25 were eliminated with New England. Another 18 entries were removed from contention after recording no pick.
Circa’s high-stakes Grandissimo survivor tournament drew 77 entries at $100,000 apiece, producing a $7.7 million pool. The separate Circa Million handicapping competition finished with 5,790 entries, falling short of its $6 million guarantee and creating a $210,000 overlay.
Los Angeles’ early stumble had already been a major storyline before the Buccaneers’ Sunday loss. The Rams, preseason Super Bowl favorites, opened their season with a 27-7 defeat to the 49ers in Melbourne, Australia. It was the first time in 50 years that the preseason Super Bowl favorite lost its opener by at least 20 points.
The Rams entered that matchup as 3.5-point favorites and had drawn most of the wagering interest, with 60% of the point-spread money backing Los Angeles. They remained the Super Bowl, NFC and NFC West favorite after the loss, although their championship price moved from 5-1 to 6-1 and their NFC West line shifted from -105 to +164.
San Francisco’s division outlook improved from +300 to +180, while the defending champion Seattle Seahawks moved from +215 to +184. The 49ers also improved from 19-1 to 14-1 in the Super Bowl market after their commanding opening-night victory.
