The Atlanta Falcons will take renewed confidence into Monday night’s NFC South matchup with the New Orleans Saints after Michael Penix Jr. returned from ACL surgery and sparked a dramatic Week 3 turnaround.
Falcons find momentum behind Penix
- Atlanta opened the season with Cooper Rush at quarterback while Penix continued his recovery and Tua Tagovailoa was also sidelined. The Falcons struggled badly in their first two games and appeared to be among the NFL’s weakest teams.
- Penix made his return in Week 3 and led Atlanta to a 35-14 victory over the Green Bay Packers.
- The quarterback posted an 84.9 QBR in the win, giving the Falcons a needed offensive lift and a reason to believe their early-season problems may not define the rest of the year.
- Atlanta now turns to a divisional road test against New Orleans on Monday night.
The Falcons’ defense has been a major part of the encouraging start. Atlanta ranks 10th in EPA allowed per play, fifth in run stop win rate and third in pass rush win rate. That front will be tested by a Saints offense that has produced timely plays but has also leaned heavily on success in late-down situations.
Saints have been competitive at 1-2
- New Orleans dropped its opener to the Detroit Lions in overtime.
- The Saints responded with a Week 2 win over the Baltimore Ravens.
- They then lost a tight, back-and-forth contest against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 3.
Quarterback Tyler Shough has helped keep New Orleans in each game. He stands 15th in QBR through three weeks and has delivered in important moments for an offense that has converted 56% of its third- and fourth-down attempts, the third-best rate in the league.
Whether that late-down efficiency can continue will be a key question against Atlanta. The Saints will also be facing a pass rush that has consistently won its matchups, while their offensive line is without left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr., who is on injured reserve.
Protection and defensive concerns
Asim Richards filled in for Banks last week and posted a pass block win rate that ranked in the 51st percentile among NFL tackles for the week. His performance offers New Orleans some hope along the edge, but the Falcons’ pressure unit presents a much tougher measuring stick.
New Orleans’ defense remains the larger concern entering Monday night. The unit ranks 28th in EPA allowed per play, though its schedule has included offenses led by the Lions and Ravens. Penix’s return adds another challenge after Atlanta showed considerably more life with him under center against Green Bay.
Running back Brian Robinson Jr. could be positioned for a larger role in the Falcons’ improving offense. He has received at least 10 touches in each of the past two games, has topped 30 rushing yards in three straight outings and has exceeded 50 yards in each of the last two. Nearly 14% of his rushing attempts against the Packers gained at least 10 yards.
The Saints have allowed 4.7 yards per rush, a figure Atlanta may look to attack as it tries to keep Penix in favorable situations.
Olave’s production under scrutiny
Saints receiver Chris Olave has remained productive, but his underlying separation numbers have declined. His open score has fallen from 77 last season to 59 this year, a pace that would mark a career low. He has offset that decline with a strong catch score, though the ability to create separation is generally viewed as the more dependable indicator of future receiving output.
Monday night’s game offers Atlanta a chance to confirm that its Week 3 breakthrough was more than a one-week correction. For New Orleans, it is an opportunity to move back to .500 and show that its close losses and uneven defensive results can be overcome in a divisional matchup.
