CLEVELAND — The American League Central race gave Cleveland more than a division flag. It bought the Guardians a week to shape their October pitching, while the White Sox arrived at Progressive Field after sweeping Houston in the Wild Card Series and with every arm still potentially in play. Their first postseason meeting opens Saturday at 1 p.m. ET, and the contrast could define the early innings: Cleveland has its top two starters in place, while Chicago is prepared to build games matchup by matchup.
The Guardians will hand Game 1 to left-hander Parker Messick, whose rise from last year’s seven-start late-season audition has been one of the club’s biggest developments. He did not make Cleveland’s 2025 Wild Card roster, then earned an Opening Day job this spring and turned it into a season worthy of consideration in both the AL Cy Young and Rookie of the Year races.
Messick, 25, finished with a 2.56 ERA across 186 1/3 innings in 32 starts, striking out 193 and walking 49. He also handled the White Sox well during the regular season, posting a 2.81 ERA in four outings covering 25 2/3 innings, with 29 strikeouts against five walks. Cleveland will be asking its rookie lefty to set the tone for a series that could quickly turn into a battle of bullpen coverage.
Gavin Williams follows for the Guardians in Game 2, bringing one of the league’s most forceful strikeout seasons into the matchup. Williams punched out 248 hitters in 184 1/3 innings over 32 starts, trailing only Jacob Misiorowski’s 252 strikeouts in the majors. His 11 games with at least 10 strikeouts led MLB, and every workload figure marked a career high.
Chicago had more success against Williams than it did against Messick, though Williams still struck out 28 White Sox in 20 1/3 innings over four starts. His 3.98 ERA against them is respectable, but his home-road split may matter more if the series stretches: he posted a 2.84 ERA in 18 starts at Progressive Field and a 5.05 mark in 14 road starts. With Williams taking Game 2, Cleveland could bring him back for a winner-take-all Game 5 at home. Messick would line up for a possible Game 4 in Chicago.
Cleveland holds options for Game 3
The Guardians have not committed to a Game 3 starter. Manager Stephen Vogt wants to see what the first two games demand before deciding how to deploy the rest of his staff, and that leaves several paths open for the road game in Chicago.
One possibility is right-hander Daniel Espino opening for lefty Joey Cantillo. Chicago’s Wild Card roster carried six left-handed hitters among its 14 position players, plus one switch-hitter, and an Espino start could force the White Sox to reveal how aggressively they want to use left-handed bat Randal Grichuk. They could start Grichuk against the right-hander or wait until Cantillo takes over.
Espino opened Cantillo’s final three regular-season appearances after Cantillo ran into command trouble. The response was sharp: Cantillo threw 15 scoreless innings, surrendered five hits and four walks, and struck out 17. Tanner Bibee and Foster Griffin also remain available as Cleveland weighs whether it wants a conventional starter, a bulk-inning arrangement, or something dictated by the series score.
White Sox keep the board open
Chicago’s plan is even less defined after its two-game sweep of the Astros. Manager Will Venable was still smiling through the uncertainty after Wednesday’s clincher, offering only a simple “We don’t know” when asked about the rotation. Friday’s workout schedule at Progressive Field listed no Game 1 starter.
Anthony Kay appeared to be a logical Game 1 choice because he had last pitched Sunday against Colorado, but Chicago used him to finish the fifth inning against Houston on Wednesday. Erick Fedde also carried a starter-and-bulk-relief profile, yet he threw the final two innings to eliminate the Astros. For Fedde, one of the few encouraging stories from Chicago’s difficult 2024 season, it made for a fitting full-circle postseason moment.
Rookie left-hander Hagen Smith is another consideration after tossing three scoreless innings against Houston on Tuesday. His brief major league stay has already featured some uncomfortable swings from opposing hitters. Davis Martin has not pitched since Sept. 26, but he could start or take on a long relief role. Martin opened the season 8-1 and was among baseball’s better starters through late May before his usage changed later in the year.
Sean Burke may be the closest thing to a Game 2 guess. The Sunday off-day would put him on regular rest for Monday after he struck out eight Astros in four innings on Wednesday. Still, the White Sox are not treating their staff as a traditional rotation. Burke recently joked that the club has 13 pitchers — 12 during the Wild Card round — but does not neatly label them starters or relievers.
That approach is not about gimmicks. Venable and his staff have been choosing the arm best suited for each pocket of hitters, then worrying about the next inning when it arrives. It has carried Chicago through a season that became one of baseball’s more surprising stories, and there is little reason for the club to abandon it now.
Kay could still be needed in either of the first two games despite pitching Wednesday. Martin’s splits offer another clue for Chicago’s decision-making: he went 5-3 with a 3.13 ERA in 15 home starts, compared with a 4-5 record and 4.68 ERA in 14 road appearances, 13 of them starts. Rookie Noah Schultz has impressed while working multiple innings from the bullpen, rookie David Sandlin shifted from starting to relief work against Houston, and Sean Newcomb remains an adaptable option after recording a 3.24 ERA in eight games against Cleveland.
The Guardians have earned the cleaner opening card with Messick and Williams. The White Sox, fresh off Houston, will try to make the series messy enough that starter labels no longer matter.
