The Rays had Friday to themselves at Tropicana Field, but there was no mistaking where their attention would turn Saturday night. Cleveland and Chicago were headed to a Game 5 at Progressive Field, and the survivor would arrive in St. Petersburg for Game 1 of the American League Championship Series on Monday night. Beyond the two fan bases — and, perhaps, a few interested eyes at the Vatican — Tampa Bay may have had the strongest stake in the result.
A waiting club gets its answer Saturday
Kevin Cash’s club has already earned its place in the ALCS after sweeping the Yankees, giving the Rays a rare chance to rest while two potential opponents emptied out their pitching staffs. Game 1 at the Trop is scheduled for Monday night, with TBS, truTV, UniMas and HBO Max carrying the broadcast.
Cash said the Rays would approach the decisive Division Series game as baseball fans first, then get to work once the final out supplied the matchup.
- The Guardians and White Sox will play a winner-take-all Game 5 on Saturday at Progressive Field.
- The winner travels to Tampa Bay for Monday night’s ALCS opener.
- Both Central Division clubs have leaned heavily on bullpen games and wide-ranging pitching plans during the ALDS.
- That workload could leave the Rays facing an opponent with a taxed relief corps at the start of the next round.
“At this point, we’re watching two quality teams play,” Cash said. “By around 11:30 tomorrow night, we should have a pretty clear idea of what is ahead of us.”
Reliever Kevin Kelly saw the scheduling edge, while acknowledging that a postseason series rarely follows a script. “It ought to help us, but this is baseball and anything can happen,” Kelly said. “I expect everybody will watch, and then we’ll find out who we have.”
Chicago brings thunder, but Tampa Bay saw two versions of the White Sox
The Rays took four of six from Chicago during the regular season, though the calendar tells an important part of that story. Tampa Bay swept three games at Rate Field from April 14-16, winning the run total 21-11. The White Sox answered at the Trop from July 31 through Aug. 2, taking all three while outscoring the Rays 15-3.
Those meetings also came before the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline, making them an imperfect preview of an October series. Cash noted that the White Sox who showed up early in the season did not look like the club that later came through St. Petersburg and played crisp baseball.
Chicago’s lineup carries the more obvious home-run threat. The White Sox finished fifth in the Majors with 211 homers and were the only big league team with three hitters reaching 30: Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas and Colson Montgomery. That is a notable concern for a Rays staff that surrendered 201 home runs, eighth most in the Majors.
- Murakami, Vargas and Montgomery each cleared the 30-homer mark.
- Chase Meidroth, Sam Antonacci and former Ray Tristan Peters provide a different look, with contact and on-base skills around the power.
- Chicago’s pitching has required manager Will Venable to mix and match throughout the Division Series.
- Right-hander Sean Burke has nevertheless performed like a frontline starter for several months.
Burke posted a 2.74 ERA and struck out 112 in 98 2/3 innings across his final 18 appearances. He also turned in a strong outing in Game 2 of the ALDS, giving Chicago a potential rotation piece capable of changing the equation if it advances.
Cleveland’s tight-game profile may be the sterner test
On the surface, the Rays handled the AL Central champion Guardians more convincingly. Tampa Bay went 5-1 against Cleveland and held a 20-8 edge in runs. The Rays won two of three at Progressive Field from April 27-29, with the lone loss coming against a standout Gavin Williams start, then swept Cleveland at the Trop from July 24-26.
Still, the matchups were usually much closer than the overall series record suggests. Remove Tampa Bay’s 11-3 victory on July 24, and every Rays-Guardians game was decided by three runs or fewer. Three of the six contests were one-run games, including two 1-0 Tampa Bay wins.
The July series included a scoreless gem of its own, a 1-0 pitching duel between Drew Rasmussen and Parker Messick. Cash compared the feel of Cleveland games to a Yankees series: close margins, strong pitching, clean play and the occasional timely swing deciding the night.
The Guardians may present the more complete October challenge despite lacking a 20-homer hitter during the regular season. Messick and Williams have the kind of high-end starting ability that can tilt a short series, and each was good enough to beat the Rays earlier in the year. Cade Smith remains a formidable closer, while Cleveland has repeatedly found ways to maximize its pitching depth.
- José Ramírez remains the centerpiece of the Cleveland offense, even after a quieter season at the plate by his standards.
- Jo Adell, Chase DeLauter, Travis Bazzana and Steven Kwan add length to a lineup deeper than several recent Guardians editions.
- Messick, Williams and Smith give Cleveland impact arms at the front and back of games.
The Rays will not have long to dwell on whichever opponent survives Saturday. Their familiarity is limited: they faced each AL Central contender only six times, and all of those games came before the deadline reshaped rosters. But Tampa Bay has the one advantage every club wants in October — a day to watch, recover and prepare while somebody else spends every available arm trying to get to the Trop.
