Phillies Face High-Stakes Offseason After Another Early Playoff Exit

The Phillies reached October again, but another early exit has left a club built around a $320 million payroll staring at more questions than answers. Philadelphia lost to the Braves in the National League Wild Card Series, extending a troubling trend: its postseason finishes have come earlier in each of the past several years.

Only the Phillies and Dodgers have qualified for the postseason in each of the last five seasons. The difference is what followed. Philadelphia reached the World Series in 2022 and lost, while Los Angeles has captured the past two championships and will open the NL Championship Series against the Brewers on Sunday night in Milwaukee with a chance for a third straight title.

The Phillies still have a rotation that can stack up with any club in the game, led by Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo and Cristopher Sánchez. But the offense faded, the bullpen never settled behind closer Jhoan Duran, and the front office now has to decide whether a few repairs will be enough.

Mattingly remains the likely choice, but no decision is public

Don Mattingly did enough to put himself in position to return as manager. After the Phillies stumbled to a 9-19 opening, they posted baseball’s fourth-best record from April 28 through the end of the regular season and secured another playoff berth.

That turnaround came despite an offense and relief corps that both graded in the lower third of the majors. Mattingly met the central task set by president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski: stabilize the club after its poor start and get it back into October.

Still, the Phillies have not announced Mattingly’s status. Alex Cora will not be the answer, having told Philadelphia he does not intend to manage in 2027. The lack of a Mattingly announcement nevertheless leaves room for questions. He may be reluctant to return after the organization twice favored Cora over him, or Dombrowski may simply want to survey the field.

An offense that fell off sharply

Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper were Philadelphia’s only regulars to produce above league-average offense. Schwarber finished with a 131 OPS+, while Harper posted a 128 mark. The rest of the lineup did not offer enough support.

The Phillies need outside additions, but a single marquee hitter would not cure the larger problem. Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto must rebound as well. Turner recorded an 81 OPS+ after carrying a combined .798 OPS across the previous three seasons; this year he finished at .675. Realmuto dropped from a .699 OPS last season to .614, along with a 65 OPS+.

There is also a question of lineup identity. Philadelphia could use more hitters who consistently put the ball in play, yet two of its strongest options in that area, Alec Bohm and Luis Arraez, are headed to free agency. Bringing either back would help preserve that skill, though it would also invite the question of whether the club is merely repeating a formula that has stopped working in October.

Turner and the outfield question

Turner’s issues at shortstop could make an eventual move to the outfield more than an offseason talking point. Philadelphia’s outfielders combined for a .686 OPS, 26th among major league outfields. That figure includes Harper’s work in right field during the final two months.

This has been a recurring shortcoming. Phillies outfielders ranked 19th in OPS at .710 in 2025 and 16th at .708 in 2024. If Turner shifts to the grass and regains his bat, he could offer the group a needed lift. The immediate follow-up would be just as important: who takes over at shortstop?

How far will Dombrowski go?

Philadelphia can tinker around the edges, moving on from or reshaping roles for players such as Bohm, Arraez, Brandon Marsh or Orion Kerkering. But the end of the season has also fueled bigger roster speculation.

Harper, Schwarber, Turner and one of the frontline starters could bring back meaningful returns in the right deal. The obstacles are considerable. Major money is attached to those contracts, and Philadelphia would need a package that improves both its present and future outlook.

Harper, Schwarber, Turner, Realmuto, Wheeler and Aaron Nola also hold complete no-trade protection. That does not mean the Phillies should close off discussions. A club coming off another disappointing October needs to consider every route back toward the standard set by the Dodgers.

Finding a bridge to Duran

The back end of the bullpen remains a major need. Mattingly spent much of the season searching for dependable setup work ahead of Duran, without finding a permanent answer.

Brad Keller’s summer ended with a right elbow injury, after he had already struggled. José Alvarado endured a difficult season and is now a free agent. Kerkering was sent down to Triple-A Lehigh Valley last month, leaving his place in the organization uncertain.

Jonathan Bowlan received late-inning opportunities late in the year, while rookie Alex McFarlane handled his assignments well. Those auditions offered a little encouragement, but not enough certainty for a team that intends to contend. Before Philadelphia can think about another October run, it must build a bullpen capable of getting the ball cleanly to its closer.