The Brewers closed the strongest regular season in club history on Sunday at American Family Field, then turned their attention to an October question without an easy answer: Would Milwaukee rather see the Cubs or Padres in the National League Division Series?
They will have a few days to consider it. Milwaukee is set to spend the week working out, holding drills and playing intrasquad games while Chicago and San Diego meet in a best-of-three Wild Card Series. The winner will head to Milwaukee for NLDS Game 1 on Saturday.
Manager Pat Murphy was not about to name a preferred opponent. The Cubs bring the complications of a division rivalry, while the Padres arrive with recent success against Milwaukee and a veteran club built for this part of the calendar.
“It will be Chicago or San Diego,” Murphy said. “The Cubs know us extremely well, and there is familiarity and emotion involved. The Padres have had the upper hand on us over the last three years, swept us in San Diego in August, and they are playing well. They have experienced players who have been pushing toward the World Series for a long time. We’ll handle it when the time comes.”
Regular-season results point toward Chicago
The Brewers went 9-4 against the Cubs this season and won five of seven meetings during a pivotal 10-day stretch late in the year. Chicago had one last chance to make the NL Central race interesting, but Milwaukee put it away, including a three-game sweep at American Family Field from Sept. 7-9.
Jacob Misiorowski was especially effective in that matchup, with Milwaukee winning all four of his starts against the Cubs.
San Diego has been a tougher draw. The Brewers have dropped each of the past three season series against the Padres and went 2-8 at Petco Park in that span. This year’s August sweep in San Diego became a turning point, particularly after Milwaukee went 3-for-28 with runners in scoring position and struck out 12 times in those spots.
Jake Bauers said afterward that the club needed to relax. The Brewers responded by taking three of four from the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium, securing baseball’s best record and maintaining that grip through the finish.
Milwaukee’s pitching choices could shape the series
Misiorowski is lined up to start the Division Series opener, while Logan Henderson is scheduled to throw a simulated game Tuesday, placing him on track for a possible Game 2 assignment.
The Brewers also have roster decisions to make around their young left-handed starters and veteran right-hander Dustin May. Murphy has indicated Robert Gasser and Shane Drohan will be included in some role. Kyle Harrison is another left-handed possibility, and Milwaukee already has lefty relief options in Aaron Ashby, JoJo Romero and DL Hall.
The matchup changes depending on the opponent. San Diego’s biggest right-handed bats include Ty France, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado and Luis Campusano. Yet the Padres actually produced a little better against right-handed pitching this season, posting a 102 wRC+ and .401 slugging percentage, compared with a 98 wRC+ and .390 slugging mark against lefties.
The Cubs offer more balance. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch hit left-handed, Ian Happ is a switch-hitter, and Seiya Suzuki and Alex Bregman give Chicago force from the right side. Bregman’s availability remains a consideration after facial fractures caused by a foul ball in the on-deck circle during the final week of the regular season, though he was back to himself Sunday.
Chicago led the Majors with a 122 wRC+ and .447 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. It also tied for the top wRC+ against right-handers at 112 and ranked fourth in slugging percentage at .422.
There is one encouraging split for Milwaukee if San Diego advances. The Brewers can bring premium velocity from Misiorowski, Ashby, Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill. Against fastballs at 95 mph or harder, the Padres ranked eighth in the Majors with a .325 weighted on-base average. The Cubs ranked 25th at .308.
Starting pitching and the bullpen question
San Diego will open its Wild Card Series with Michael King, who went 12-10 with a 3.21 ERA while emerging as the Padres’ ace. The rest of the Padres’ order is less settled. Nick Pivetta, 3-2 with a 2.86 ERA after returning from a five-month absence caused by a flexor strain, could be ahead of Robbie Ray and Walker Buehler. Ray finished 13-8 with a 3.59 ERA, while Buehler went 9-6 with a 4.56 ERA.
Chicago had not announced its Game 1 starter for the Wild Card Series. Matthew Boyd, who went 10-5 with a 3.91 ERA, and Kevin Gausman, 9-12 with a 4.51 ERA, were the leading possibilities. The Cubs also have Clay Holmes, Shota Imanaga and David Peterson after adding experienced arms during the season. Gausman’s availability is being watched because of soreness in his non-throwing shoulder.
| Potential starter | Record | ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Michael King, Padres | 12-10 | 3.21 |
| Nick Pivetta, Padres | 3-2 | 2.86 |
| Robbie Ray, Padres | 13-8 | 3.59 |
| Walker Buehler, Padres | 9-6 | 4.56 |
| Matthew Boyd, Cubs | 10-5 | 3.91 |
| Kevin Gausman, Cubs | 9-12 | 4.51 |
| Clay Holmes, Cubs | 6-8 | 3.29 |
| Shota Imanaga, Cubs | 11-10 | 3.77 |
| David Peterson, Cubs | 9-8 | 4.79 |
The clearer edge belongs to San Diego’s bullpen. The Padres have one of baseball’s deepest relief groups, fronted by All-Star closer Mason Miller and left-handed setup man Adrian Morejon. Chicago has no fixed ninth-inning closer, and its bullpen absorbed seven losses in September, tied for the third-most in the Majors during the final month.
A postseason crowd ready for either opponent
Neither possible matchup lacks edge. Machado has heard sustained boos in Milwaukee ever since his contact with Jesús Aguilar’s leg in Game 4 of the 2018 NLCS. The American Family Field crowd has also kept its feelings clear for Cubs manager Craig Counsell since he left Milwaukee for Chicago three seasons ago.
Crow-Armstrong, as the standout player for Milwaukee’s primary division rival, would bring his own share of attention. The Padres carry recent dominance and a dangerous bullpen. The Cubs bring familiarity, a potent lineup and a rivalry already sharpened by a long summer in the NL Central.
The Brewers cannot choose the opponent. They can only use the week to settle their roster, line up their arms and wait for Saturday.
