Chris Sale will take the ball for Atlanta on Tuesday afternoon, bringing a 2.16 ERA and a strong four-start history against Philadelphia into a familiar October meeting at Truist Park. The Braves and Phillies open their best-of-three National League Wild Card Series at 2 p.m. ET, with NBC and Peacock carrying Game 1.
The result
There is no shortage of history in this matchup. Atlanta reached the postseason after claiming its seventh division title in nine years, but the club remembers how little those big regular-season totals meant in 2022 and 2023. The Braves won more than 100 games in each of those seasons, only to have Philadelphia end their run in the Division Series.
The Phillies have taken each of the last three postseason series between the clubs: the 1993 NL Championship Series, followed by the 2022 and 2023 NLDS matchups. Philadelphia owns a 10-4 record across those series and has won six of the eight games played between the rivals this decade.
“It just feels right,” Braves first baseman Matt Olson said. “We’ve had plenty of good battles with them. This is what the postseason is for. There’s a lot of respect there. They’re a good club, and we’re ready to go.”
Sale, the 2024 NL Cy Young Award winner, is returning to postseason competition for the first time since 2021. The veteran left-hander finished third in the Majors with his 2.16 ERA and limited Philadelphia to a 2.08 mark over 26 innings in four regular-season starts.
His October resume has both ends of the spectrum. Sale struck out all three Dodgers he faced while closing Game 6 of the 2018 World Series from Boston’s bullpen. But in seven postseason starts, he owns a 7.24 ERA and has failed to reach five innings in four of them.
The rotation next
Philadelphia’s Game 1 starter remains unsettled after Zack Wheeler worked Sunday’s regular-season finale to help the Phillies secure a playoff berth. Rookie Andrew Painter is one possibility after throwing a bullpen session Sunday and lining up on normal rest. Left-hander Jesús Luzardo, who made his first appearance since Sept. 7 with a clean relief inning Sunday, is another. Aaron Nola threw 21 pitches on short rest Saturday and also remains an option.
Wheeler could instead be part of the relief picture because he is unavailable to start this series. Luzardo and Painter may also be asked to work out of the bullpen, depending on how Philadelphia sets its starters.
Possible Game 1 lineups
| Phillies | Position | Braves | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner | SS | Drake Baldwin | DH |
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF |
| Bryce Harper | RF | Matt Olson | 1B |
| Alec Bohm | 1B | Michael Harris II | CF |
| Bryson Stott | 2B | Mauricio Dubón | SS |
| Edmundo Sosa | 3B | Ozzie Albies | 2B |
| Bryan De La Cruz | LF | Mike Yastrzemski | LF |
| Derek Hill | CF | Austin Riley | 3B |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | Sean Murphy | C |
Philadelphia manager Don Mattingly has changed the look of his order several times over the past week while searching for offense. The Phillies finished September tied for 29th in batting average at .226 and slugging percentage at .356. They also ranked 29th in OPS at .660 and scored just 3.71 runs per game.
That late-season slide makes the choice against Sale difficult to forecast. Luis Arraez further complicates matters after badly spraining his left ankle Thursday. His condition had improved enough by Sunday that a pinch-hit appearance was at least conceivable, but he had not swung a bat since the injury and does not appear likely to handle a defensive assignment.
Atlanta’s lineup has been uneven, too, though Acuña finished with a flourish. He posted a 1.377 OPS in seven September games against Philadelphia. Baldwin and Dubón were the only other Braves with an OPS of at least .750 for the full final month, while Baldwin, Dubón and Harris each carried an .850-or-better OPS from Sept. 14 forward.
Riley hit two homers during the final week, even as the broader two-week stretch proved frustrating. Albies entered the series with an OPS below .500 since Sept. 14.
Late innings and injury questions
Philadelphia’s bullpen has been a season-long concern and grew shakier in September. Rookie right-hander Alex McFarlane, right-hander Jonathan Bowlan and left-hander José Alvarado have been Mattingly’s most trusted bridge options in front of closer Jhoan Duran.
Bowlan’s availability is uncertain after a right calf strain kept him out for more than a week. The Phillies may need their available starters to cover meaningful innings behind whichever pitcher opens Game 1.
Atlanta could have a deeper leverage group if Robert Suarez is fully back. He had made only two appearances during the previous three months, but his outings against Cincinnati and Miami in the final week gave the Braves confidence that his right elbow can handle high-pressure work. Suarez, Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee and Didier Fuentes could form the preferred late-inning group, with AJ Smith-Shawver and Dylan Dodd available to cover the middle frames.
Lane Thomas is not expected to be ready because of a left intercostal strain. His absence could move Dubón from shortstop to left field against right-handed pitching, with Yastrzemski also in line for starts in left against righties.
Atlanta starters Bryce Elder, recovering from arthroscopic surgery on his right knee, Reynaldo López, sidelined by right shoulder inflammation, and Martín Pérez, dealing with lower-back discomfort, could become options if the Braves advance beyond this round.
For now, the series starts with Sale, a cold Philadelphia offense, and two clubs that have spent the better part of the last five years finding each other when October arrives.
