The Dodgers have earned a few days of October quiet, but the next club on their schedule is still being decided. Los Angeles, chasing a third straight World Series title, needs 11 postseason victories to finish the job. First comes an NL Division Series at Dodger Stadium on Saturday, with either the Philadelphia Phillies or Atlanta Braves arriving from the Wild Card round.
Philadelphia and Atlanta settle the first question
The Phillies and Braves open their best-of-three NL Wild Card Series on Tuesday at Truist Park, with first pitch set for 11 a.m. Pacific time. The survivor gets the Dodgers in the NLDS.
Manager Dave Roberts sees two familiar division rivals heading into a series where regular-season expectations no longer carry much weight.
“At the beginning of the year, those teams were likely viewed as the top two in the East,” Roberts said. “They know each other well, and it should make for a strong series. Once divisional opponents meet, anything can happen.”
Neither Wild Card club reaches October with a clean September ledger.
- Philadelphia went 10-14 during September and lost six of its final nine games, though it secured its playoff place in Game 162.
- Atlanta finished September at 12-12 and lost four of its last six games after clinching its division.
- The Braves remained in contention for a first-round bye until the Dodgers locked down the National League’s No. 2 seed on Thursday.
For Los Angeles, the work this week will be split between rest, preparation and a close look at the series in Atlanta. The club is not publicly picking a preferred opponent, and the Dodgers believe their roster is equipped for either a five-game or seven-game set.
The Phillies have been the better regular-season draw
If the six regular-season meetings are part of the calculation, Philadelphia presents the more favorable recent history for the Dodgers. Los Angeles took four of six from the Phillies and outscored them by 11 runs. Against Atlanta, the Dodgers went 1-5 and were outscored by nine.
Those results do not decide an October matchup, particularly after a new series begins with fresh pitching plans and shorter benches. Still, the contrast gives the Dodgers a useful reference point while they wait.
Philadelphia also could enter the Wild Card round without Luis Arraez, who has a left ankle sprain. Arraez ranked third among qualified Major League hitters with a .310 average. The Phillies posted a .678 OPS against left-handed starters and a .722 OPS against right-handers during the regular season, a split that could matter if they advance to face Dodgers lefties Tarik Skubal and Blake Snell.
Atlanta’s leading bats have been less dependent on the handedness of the opposing starter, although the Braves also hit lefties less effectively. Their OPS was .696 against southpaws and .730 versus right-handers, while their .687 September team OPS was their second-lowest monthly mark of the season.
Atlanta’s bullpen changes the pitching picture
Both possible opponents can put a top-tier starter on the mound. Atlanta has Chris Sale, while Philadelphia can lean on Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler. The depth behind those front-line arms is less settled on each side.
- The Braves have only Tyler Mahle and Grant Holmes available as other healthy rotation options behind Sale.
- Philadelphia’s likely third starter, Jesús Luzardo, missed most of the final month with a left shoulder injury.
- The Phillies may also turn to rookie Andrew Painter or Aaron Nola, who is coming off another disappointing regular season.
- Philadelphia’s relievers posted a 4.43 ERA, 21st in the Majors, and the path to closer Jhoan Durán has been unstable.
- Atlanta’s bullpen finished fourth in the Majors with a 3.44 ERA and may be asked to carry a heavy workload because of the rotation injuries.
That relief advantage makes the Braves a tougher pitching matchup in one respect, even if the Dodgers’ regular-season record against Philadelphia points the other way.
The most convenient outcome for Los Angeles would be a Wild Card Series that reaches a deciding third game, forcing whichever club advances to expend as much pitching and energy as possible before flying west. But the Dodgers’ larger concern is their own edge after the bye: staying sharp, keeping the rotation lined up and bringing their momentum into Saturday regardless of which NL East opponent steps into the visitors’ dugout.
