Cleveland has earned a few quiet days, but there will be nothing casual about the television watching. The Guardians will wait through the Houston Astros-Chicago White Sox Wild Card Series to learn their American League Division Series opponent, then open the best-of-five Saturday at Progressive Field.
The Astros and White Sox begin their three-game set Tuesday at Daikin Park. While that series unfolds, Cleveland will be on the field from Tuesday through Friday, using workouts and simulated game situations to stay sharp without burning through the energy it took to claim a third consecutive AL Central title.
The Guardians were 70-70 entering play on Sept. 4 before turning their season around. They went 15-7 the rest of the way, including a 9-3 finish that carried them past Chicago and locked up the division in Game 161.
Outfielder Steven Kwan said players will naturally keep an eye on the Wild Card games, even with the club’s advance scouting staff handling the formal preparation.
“It is not really about wanting one team,” Kwan said. “But everybody will be watching. It is almost like doing your own little scouting report, and it is fun to see what is waiting for you.”
A familiar Central foe or October-tested Houston
Chicago represents the more familiar matchup. After three straight seasons with more than 100 losses, the White Sox went 84-78 and stayed atop the Central for much of the summer before Cleveland’s September push.
The clubs split a tense season series, with Chicago taking seven of 13. Eleven of those games were settled by three runs or fewer, seven finished as one-run games, and the four series produced four walk-off victories. If the White Sox survive Houston, there is every reason to expect another tight set.
Houston won the AL West for the eighth time in 10 years despite an 81-81 record. The Astros took four of six from Cleveland and held a 28-22 scoring edge, though those meetings came in April and June, well before the Guardians became the team that finished September so strongly.
Cleveland was without José Ramírez, Chase DeLauter and Angel Martínez during the June series. Houston had its own injury hole earlier in the year, falling to 20-31 by mid-May while Hunter Brown, Jeremy Peña and Josh Hader were sidelined. Even after those players returned, the Astros only managed to finish at .500.
Cleveland can set its rotation
The first-round bye gives the Guardians an important pitching advantage. Gavin Williams and Parker Messick can be lined up for the first two Division Series games in either order, and the scheduled off-days would allow both starters to take the ball twice in a five-game series.
That is a favorable setup if Williams and Messick are operating at their best. Houston, however, would bring the Wild Card Series workload into Cleveland. Brown is the strongest starter among the possible Astros options, with Hayden Wesneski, Peter Lambert and Ethan Pecko also in the mix as right-handed choices.
The Guardians’ mostly left-handed offense was modestly better against right-handed pitching this season, posting a .706 OPS versus righties compared with a .675 mark against lefties. Neither number ranked especially high in the majors — 24th and 27th, respectively — but the split could matter against a Houston staff built around right-handers.
Chicago’s pitching has been especially troublesome for Cleveland in spots. Right-hander Sean Burke worked 17 1/3 innings against the Guardians with a 1.04 ERA. Left-hander Anthony Kay logged 20 innings at a 1.35 ERA, while bulk arm Erick Fedde posted a 2.61 ERA over 10 1/3 innings.
The Cleveland bullpen may be the steadier late-game group. Guardians relievers ranked sixth in MLB with a 3.54 ERA. Chicago was eighth at 3.70, while Houston came in 17th at 4.08. Still, either Wild Card winner could arrive with a bullpen carrying momentum from an elimination series.
Power waits on either side
No matter which club advances, Cleveland will see more power than it produced over the full regular season. The Astros led the majors with 226 home runs, tied for fourth with a .417 slugging percentage and ranked seventh in OPS at .732. The White Sox hit 211 homers, good for fifth, with a .406 slugging percentage and a .726 OPS that tied for ninth.
Cleveland finished 27th in homers with 162, ranked 27th in slugging at .380 and placed 26th in OPS at .696. Its 678 runs ranked 24th. But those season totals do not entirely capture the post-deadline lineup.
After adding Nathaniel Lowe and Jo Adell at the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline, the Guardians scored 232 runs, eighth-most in baseball, and tied Chicago for eighth in OPS at .731. The additions gave the lineup more length and helped make Cleveland’s offense look considerably different over the final two months.
The White Sox have three 30-homer threats in Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery and Miguel Vargas. Houston’s most imposing presence is Yordan Alvarez, an AL MVP candidate capable of tilting a series with a few swings. Avoiding the left-handed slugger would be a major benefit for any opponent, but Cleveland will not get to choose.
Houston also brings the deeper October résumé. Peña, Hader, Alvarez and Jose Altuve are part of a core that has helped the Astros reach the postseason in nine of the past 10 years. This may not be Houston’s most overwhelming club, but it is another experienced one.
The White Sox offer a different challenge: a hungry, rising group with many players headed for their first postseason action. Cleveland has reached the playoffs in four of the last five seasons, and that experience could weigh more heavily against Chicago than against an Astros club accustomed to October.
For now, the Guardians can rest, prepare and watch. By the end of the week, the opponent will be clear. Cleveland’s path begins Saturday, with a rested rotation, a rebuilt lineup and a division title already in hand.
