Toronto’s September 28 swap with Columbus reshaped two forward groups in very different ways. The Maple Leafs brought in Kirill Marchenko, immediately locking up the winger on a six-year extension, while Matthew Knies headed to the Blue Jackets as a younger, heavier piece for their top-six mix.
Marchenko gives Toronto another finishing threat beside its established stars, with a likely landing spot alongside either Auston Matthews or John Tavares. He could also see shifts with William Nylander or 2026 first-overall pick Gavin McKenna at five-on-five or on the power play. The Leafs are betting that Marchenko’s pace can change the look of an attack that missed the playoffs in 2026.
Toronto was in the bottom half of the League in explosive skating events last season, placing 19th with 1,636 bursts above 20 mph and 20th with 64 bursts above 22 mph. Marchenko was among the NHL’s best in those categories for Columbus. His 301 bursts at 20-plus mph ranked 10th among forwards and fell in the 99th percentile, while his 28 bursts over 22 mph were in the 98th percentile. His top recorded speed reached 23.36 mph, a 93rd-percentile mark.
That straight-line speed was not empty mileage. Marchenko produced 15 rush goals last season, tied for fifth in the NHL behind Connor McDavid and Dylan Guenther, who each had 21, plus Cole Caufield and Matt Boldy at 18 apiece. He also recorded 45 takeaways, tied for fourth among NHL forwards. Those details matter for a Toronto club seeking more transition pressure and more puck recovery after a disappointing season.
The 2024-25 campaign remains Marchenko’s points high-water mark at 74, but his shooting profile stayed strong last year even though he missed six games. He finished tied for fourth in the League with 18 goals from the mid-range area and tied for 10th with 102 mid-range shots on goal. Among forwards, his 131 shot attempts clocked between 70 and 80 mph ranked fifth. He added 39 attempts in the 80-to-90 mph range, placing him in the 94th percentile, and posted an average shot speed of 58.90 mph, in the 88th percentile.
His prior breakout also showed range. In 2024-25, Marchenko ranked in the 97th percentile in mid-range goals with 15, the 95th percentile with 84 mid-range shots on target, and the 98th percentile among forwards with 33 long-range shots on goal.
There is also reason to believe he can help the Leafs possess the puck more consistently. Marchenko’s 52.9 percent shot-attempt share at five-on-five ranked second among Columbus forwards last season, narrowly behind Dmitri Voronkov’s 53.1 percent. Tavares led Toronto forwards at 48.4 percent. The Leafs finished last in the NHL in offensive-zone time percentage at 38.9, a weakness they hope Marchenko, McKenna and newly added defenseman Darren Raddysh can address.
Columbus gets a net-front force
The Blue Jackets lose Marchenko’s speed and perimeter shooting, but Knies arrives with a game built for the hard areas. He has ranked near the top of the forward group in high-danger shots on goal in each of the past two seasons, posting 84 last season for a 96th-percentile result after recording 85 in 2024-25, good for the 97th percentile.
Knies scored 22 high-danger goals in 2024-25, tied for 10th across the NHL. His high-danger goal total fell to 13 last season, though it still placed in the 83rd percentile. The decline tracked a sharp drop in his conversion rate from 25.9 percent to 15.5 percent. Across those two seasons, he has 52 goals overall, including 11 on the power play.
In Toronto, Knies spent most of his man-advantage minutes with the second unit. Columbus could offer him a larger opportunity on its first group, especially with his ability to screen, battle and finish near the crease.
He does not match Marchenko’s current speed résumé, although his 23.13 mph maximum in 2024-25 ranked in the 90th percentile among forwards. His broader workload may suit Rick Bowness, who is about to begin his first full season behind the Columbus bench. Since the start of 2023-24, Knies is one of only four NHL players to reach at least 60 goals, 500 hits and 100 blocked shots. He has 67 goals, 503 hits and 103 blocks; J.T. Miller, Vincent Trocheck and Tom Wilson are the others in that group.
Knies now joins a Columbus core that recently secured center Adam Fantilli. Over the past two seasons, Fantilli is the only NHL player with at least 55 goals, 400 shots on goal, 240 hits and 100 blocks, totaling 405 shots, 252 hits and 107 blocks. Fantilli turns 22 on October 12, while Knies turns 24 on October 17, giving the Blue Jackets a possible long-term partnership if the two are placed together.
Columbus also enters the season with Norris Trophy winner Zach Werenski, 29, under contract for two more years and goaltender Jet Greaves, 25, signed for three more. Greaves has three years remaining on his deal. With that foundation and the Knies-Fantilli possibility up front, the Blue Jackets have a realistic path toward the Metropolitan Division’s third playoff berth.
