The Padres and Cubs have found their way back to each other, and the memory from last October is still close enough to matter. Chicago edged San Diego in a three-game Wild Card Series at Wrigley Field a year ago, with only one run separating the clubs over the full set. Now the venue shifts to Petco Park, where Tuesday’s Game 1 opens another National League Wild Card Series and another route toward a Division Series meeting with Milwaukee.
Padres manager Craig Stammen expects no easy path through a club that eliminated San Diego last fall. “It should be an excellent series,” Stammen said, noting Chicago’s talent and coaching staff. “They sent us home last year, so we have to play our best baseball.”
Michael King will take that assignment for San Diego in the opener. The right-hander went 12-10 with a 3.21 ERA and emerged as the steady hand in a Padres rotation that carried plenty of uncertainty through the summer. Nick Pivetta, who posted a 2.86 ERA in five starts after returning from a five-month flexor-strain absence, appears the leading possibility for Game 2. If the series reaches a deciding third game, San Diego could choose between Robbie Ray, 13-8 with a 3.59 ERA, and Walker Buehler, who went 9-6 with a 4.56 ERA.
Chicago has not named an opener. Left-hander Matthew Boyd, 10-5 with a 3.91 ERA, and right-hander Kevin Gausman, 9-12 with a 4.51 ERA, are among the Game 1 possibilities. Gausman’s status remains a concern after he hurt his non-throwing left shoulder on a diving tag attempt in his latest outing. He played catch in Boston on Friday, but the Cubs are still tracking the soreness. Clay Holmes, 6-8 with a 3.29 ERA, and David Peterson, 9-8 with a 4.79 ERA, could be ready as soon as Game 2, while Shota Imanaga may enter the Game 3 picture on short rest after starting Sunday’s regular-season finale.
Stars are arriving hot
At the top of the Cubs lineup sits Pete Crow-Armstrong, whose season has become something larger than a good year from a center fielder. He joined the short list of players in Major League history with at least 40 home runs and 40 steals, becoming the seventh to reach that combination. Entering the final game of the regular season, he had reached 45 homers and 41 steals, and his September included seven home runs, nine steals, 12 walks, 16 RBIs and 19 runs. Even his .894 September OPS represented a step below his full-season output.
The expected Chicago order has Crow-Armstrong leading off ahead of Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, Alex Bregman, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, Pedro Ramírez, Carson Kelly and Dansby Swanson. Bregman recently returned as a designated hitter after being struck in the face by a foul ball while waiting on deck in Cincinnati. He suffered multiple fractures around his left cheek but avoided the most serious outcomes. The question is whether he is ready to resume playing third base; Ramírez and Matt Shaw are alternatives at the hot corner. Tyrone Taylor could draw a start against a left-handed pitcher in place of Happ, and Michael Conforto provides another experienced bench option.
Bregman entered Sunday carrying a .913 OPS for September, while Swanson has looked sound since returning Sept. 18 from a left oblique injury that sidelined him for a month. Peterson and Imanaga also closed strongly for Chicago. Peterson recorded a 1.27 ERA over his final four appearances, and Imanaga worked to a 1.96 ERA while allowing one homer in his last 23 innings.
Bregman’s appearance would carry a little postseason history with it. This is set to be his 10th consecutive season playing in a postseason game, placing him in a group that includes Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, Chipper Jones, Tom Glavine, Mike Stanton, Kenley Jansen, Andruw Jones and Greg Maddux.
San Diego’s order will depend on whether Chicago opens with a lefty or righty, but the Padres have enough pieces to alter their matchups. A projected lineup against a left-hander would begin with Fernando Tatis Jr., followed by Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Ty France, Jackson Merrill, Luis Campusano, Austin Hays, Samad Taylor and Jake Cronenworth.
The Padres’ stars have found their timing after a first half that did not always look like October baseball. Tatis did not hit his first home run until late May, then launched 20 after the All-Star break to finish with 25. Merrill has surged down the stretch, and Machado reached his 30th homer Saturday night. Since the beginning of September, San Diego’s offense has been tied for the best mark in baseball by wRC+, a substantial turn from a first half in which the club ranked near the bottom of the majors offensively.
That turnaround is essential after last year’s brief playoff stay, when the Padres scored only five runs across three games. San Diego enters this rematch in considerably better health offensively. Miguel Andujar remains on the injured list with a fractured right wrist but appears ready physically, though his place on the Wild Card roster is not assured.
Late innings and old scars
San Diego clinched early enough to arrange its bullpen for the series, then secured home-field advantage Saturday night. Mason Miller is positioned for the ninth inning, with Adrian Morejon likely handling the bridge into him. Yuki Matsui and Bradgley Rodriguez are available for middle relief, while Jason Adam has returned from a right shoulder strain. Wandy Peralta and David Morgan could cover lower-leverage spots.
The Padres will be without several injured arms. Casey Mize is sidelined by a right ankle sprain, Lucas Giolito by right elbow inflammation, and Joe Musgrove continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery. Jeremiah Estrada’s right shoulder impingement is a particularly notable bullpen absence.
Chicago does not work from a conventional closer arrangement. Manager Craig Counsell can mix Daniel Palencia, Ryan Rolison, Ryan Zeferjahn, Jacob Webb and Caleb Thielbar according to the opposing pocket of hitters. Palencia has begun to regain form after multiple injury setbacks and filled a middle-inning fireman role during last year’s postseason. Rolison has developed into a leverage left-hander, and Zeferjahn became another late-inning choice after arriving at the Trade Deadline. Webb and Thielbar bring late-game experience despite recent uneven results.
The Cubs also have possible multi-inning relief help in Javier Assad, Edward Cabrera, Aaron Civale and Colin Rea, in addition to any starters shifted into bullpen duty as the series unfolds.
Chicago held the upper hand during the regular season, winning five of six meetings and outscoring San Diego 55-28. The Cubs took two of three at Petco Park from April 27-29, then swept a three-game set at Wrigley Field from June 29 through July 1. That total includes a 23-3 Cubs win on July 1, a result that heavily tilts the season run differential.
The postseason ledger is even over the longer view. The clubs have met twice in October: San Diego won the 1984 National League Championship Series, while Chicago captured last year’s Wild Card Series. Across eight postseason games, each team has won four. In their previous playoff meeting in San Diego, the Padres swept all three home games at Jack Murphy Stadium.
Chicago arrives with a defense that has separated itself from the league. Its plus-70 Fielding Run Value and plus-72 Outs Above Average are both single-season highs in the Statcast era, which began in 2016. For scale, St. Louis finished second in Fielding Run Value at plus-45, while Arizona ranked next in Outs Above Average at plus-43.
There is also a possible young name waiting in the background for San Diego. Rookie catcher Ethan Salas, the organization’s top prospect, is not expected to start Game 1. But if he catches in any game, he would become the youngest player ever to do so in the postseason. Bob Didier holds the current mark, having been 20 years and 230 days old at the beginning of the 1969 NLCS. Salas will be 20 years and 120 days old Tuesday.
