San Diego has its postseason ticket in hand, but Petco Park still has work to do this weekend. The Padres and Diamondbacks open a three-game set Friday night after playing each other dead even through their first 10 meetings: two in Mexico City, four in San Diego and four in Arizona. Now Arizona arrives needing almost everything to break right, while the Padres are chasing Wild Card Series home-field advantage.
The result
The Diamondbacks come to town two games behind Philadelphia for the National League’s final Wild Card berth. The Phillies host Tampa Bay this weekend, and any combination of two Philadelphia victories or Arizona losses eliminates the D-backs.
Arizona’s path is narrow but clear. A sweep of San Diego, paired with two Phillies losses in three games, would do the job. If the Diamondbacks take only two of three at Petco Park, they would need Tampa Bay to sweep Philadelphia.
The clubs have been pointed toward this weekend for some time. After their early-August meeting, Padres manager Craig Stammen noted that neither side had gained much ground in the season series and suggested the final three games could settle a great deal. It will not decide every postseason spot now that San Diego has clinched, but it remains a consequential series for both dugouts.
Arizona arrives on a five-game winning streak, fresh off a sweep of the Rockies at Coors Field. The D-backs’ clubhouse was lively after Thursday’s victory, but manager Torey Lovullo stressed that the momentum only matters if his club carries its work into San Diego.
“The players are enjoying themselves, and winning brings that out,” Lovullo said. “But once we get on the plane, the focus has to shift to tomorrow. We have to do the same job again.”
The Padres are 49-29 at Petco Park and have every reason to press despite already qualifying for October. A strong weekend could secure the right to host a Wild Card Series.
The rotation next
Arizona has Brandon Pfaadt, Corbin Burnes and Michael Soroka lined up for the three games. Lovullo has handled the past week with a postseason urgency, however, and the starters should not expect a long runway if trouble develops. The bullpen may be asked to cover important outs early.
San Diego will use Walker Buehler and Casey Mize in the first two games, though their order had not been settled. Buehler could pitch Saturday and still remain an option for the third game of a Wild Card Series. Mize is not expected to be part of that potential series as a starter.
Michael King will not start Sunday. With the Padres already in the field, they intend to hold him for Game 1 of the Wild Card Series.
Arizona’s late-inning formula
The Diamondbacks have found steadier footing in the bullpen than in recent seasons. After Paul Sewald was removed from the closer’s role and designated for assignment, Arizona moved to a matchup-based finish.
Left-hander Brandyn Garcia and right-handers Kevin Ginkel, Jonathan Loaisiga, Juan Morillo and Justin Martinez give Lovullo several late-inning choices. Taylor Clarke and Dennis Santana have also provided strong work getting the ball to the back end.
The concern is at the front of the staff and in the inconsistency of the lineup. Burnes is still working to regain his command following Tommy John surgery and may be handled carefully. Arizona’s offense can produce big innings quickly when it gets going, but it has also endured stretches of poor production with runners in scoring position.
Padres bats have changed the picture
San Diego’s bullpen has been one of the club’s strengths throughout the season. The offense took longer to find its stride, spending much of the first half near the bottom of the Major League picture, but it has turned sharply since the start of September.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has been swinging a hot bat, with Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill supplying production around him. Ty France has made a strong case as one of the season’s best additions, while Dustin Harris and Samad Taylor have supplied useful contributions in supporting roles.
The Padres’ starting pitching is in its healthiest position of the season, though it still carries questions. Buehler has pitched well lately, but Arizona hit him hard in July during his last Petco Park start against the D-backs. Mize takes a turn Saturday, and his run with San Diego has not yet delivered the results the club wanted.
