Tampa Bay has earned a few quiet days at Tropicana Field after a 98-win regular season that left the Rays atop the American League. The club will rest, treat injuries and sharpen its work before opening the AL Division Series at home Saturday, with either Boston or New York coming out of the Wild Card Series.
The result
The Rays were difficult to beat all season, finishing at .500 or better against every American League opponent except Baltimore and Detroit. That body of work gives Kevin Cash’s club little reason to concern itself with choosing an opponent. Still, the two possible visitors bring very different October problems.
Boston may offer Tampa Bay the more comfortable home matchup. The Red Sox are 10-29 at Tropicana Field since the start of 2021, including a 1-5 mark this season. They scored only 15 runs in those six games. Over that six-year stretch, Boston has hit .202 with a .587 OPS at the Trop.
The Yankees have not exactly lit up the ballpark, either. They are 17-21 in St. Petersburg over the same period, with a .637 OPS. But New York’s lineup has more depth, particularly if Aaron Judge can return from the moderate right calf strain that has sidelined him since Sept. 16.
Yankees manager Aaron Boone said the club had been preparing as if Judge would not be available for the Wild Card round, though Judge has maintained that he intends to be ready for the postseason. Even if the captain returns, it is unclear how close he would be to full strength. His production, when healthy, remains a major concern: Judge owns a 175 career wRC+ and posted a 140 mark this season.
New York also has Ben Rice, who finished fifth in the majors with a 149 wRC+ and surged to a 195 mark in September. Boston, by contrast, had only one qualified hitter at league average or better in September: Roman Anthony at 101.
The Red Sox have been waiting on Willson Contreras, who missed eight games late in the season with a bruised right hand. He returned in the regular-season finale, went 0-for-2 with a strikeout, and was removed in the fifth inning. Without him, Boston’s offense sputtered; the club scored more than four runs only once over its final 17 games.
Mickey Gasper was Boston’s only other hitter who finished at least 15 percent above league average offensively, but a right biceps injury is expected to keep him out for the remainder of the year.
If the Rays draw Boston, they will still face a capable starting trio. Rookie left-hander Payton Tolle struck out 171 over 148 2/3 innings and recorded a 2.66 ERA across his final 13 starts. Sonny Gray, acquired during the offseason, posted a 2.72 ERA in 169 innings at age 36. Ranger Suarez allowed just three earned runs over 24 2/3 innings in four September starts.
Boston’s bullpen is the stronger relief group of the two potential opponents. The Red Sox led the majors with a 3.00 bullpen ERA, ranked second in FanGraphs WAR at 8.0, and were fifth in strikeout-minus-walk rate at 15.2 percent. Aroldis Chapman remains a late-inning force, Garrett Whitlock’s 25.3 percent K-BB rate ranked in a tie for eighth among qualified relievers, and trade acquisition Erik Miller struck out 29 in 18 2/3 innings after arriving from San Francisco.
Garrett Crochet could eventually add another power arm to that group. The left-hander, last year’s American League Cy Young runner-up, has been out since April with left shoulder inflammation. He threw live batting practice last week and is nearing a return, though his October role would likely be in relief.
New York’s bullpen has solid high-leverage options in David Bednar, Brent Headrick and Paul Blackburn, but the numbers favor Boston. The Yankees ranked second in relief ERA, 13th in FanGraphs WAR and 15th in strikeout-minus-walk rate.
The rotation next
The Yankees present the tougher starting-pitching path because Cam Schlittler is lined up to open their Wild Card Series on Tuesday. That schedule would put the American League Cy Young favorite on normal rest for Game 2 of the ALDS on Sunday at Tropicana Field, and the series off-days could position him for a winner-take-all Game 5.
Schlittler’s season included 25 starts in which he permitted one earned run or fewer, an extraordinary run even by Yankees standards. For Tampa Bay, avoiding two looks at him in a five-game series would be preferable.
New York has more than one answer, too. Max Fried worked through multiple left elbow bone bruises to compile a 2.80 ERA in 112 2/3 innings. He has allowed no more than one run in seven of his last eight outings. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón are additional ALDS possibilities, and Rodón’s most recent start was his best of the season, coming against the Rays.
Boston’s starters may be steadier as a group, while its bullpen is better equipped for tight October innings. New York carries the deeper lineup and the most intimidating single starter in Schlittler. The Rays, meanwhile, will have home field throughout the American League playoffs after going 55-26 at home during the regular season.
That is the part that matters most once Saturday arrives. Tampa Bay knows both clubs, knows its own park, and has spent the season building the kind of confidence that does not depend on who walks into the visiting clubhouse.
