Drew Rasmussen takes the ball for Tampa Bay on Sunday evening with the American League Championship Series level at two games apiece, and the Rays arrive in Cleveland with their core hitters finally showing some life. Parker Messick gets the start for the Guardians in a Game 5 that will send one club home with a chance to finish the job and leave the other facing a difficult trip to Florida.
The result
Tampa Bay’s 7-3 victory in Game 4 on Saturday changed the shape of the series. A loss would have put the Rays on the brink, but the win restored the split and turned Sunday’s 5 p.m. ET meeting at Progressive Field into the decisive middle game of the matchup. TBS and HBO Max will carry the game.
The Rays had been waiting for Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda to look like themselves. Before Game 4, the three had gone 5-for-34 in the series with only one RBI between them, a quiet stretch that helped Cleveland take a 2-1 lead.
They answered in the fourth game. Aranda finished 3-for-4, scored twice and drove in two runs. Díaz doubled and later supplied a two-run homer in the ninth. Caminero brought home a run and struck a ball to center at 110.7 mph, a drive that had the look of a home run except for the cold conditions.
If Tampa Bay wins Sunday, it will return to Tropicana Field needing one more victory to reach the World Series. The Rays owned the best home record in baseball during the regular season. A Cleveland win, meanwhile, would put the Guardians one victory from the pennant, with Gavin Williams still waiting in the picture.
The rotation next
Rasmussen will face Messick, who is working on regular rest for Cleveland. The Guardians would welcome length from the rookie, though he has already carried a heavy workload this October. Cleveland may have little choice but to manage the game aggressively behind him.
Cade Smith, Evan Gaddis and Eric Sabrowski were all unused in Game 4, leaving the Guardians’ trusted relief group available for a prominent role. There is no off day after Game 5 because Friday’s rainout removed the planned travel break, and Game 6 shifts immediately to Tampa Bay.
That schedule makes this a particularly pressing game for Cleveland. The Guardians took home-field advantage with their Game 1 win, then gave it back Saturday. Dropping Game 5 would mean traveling south without a break and needing consecutive victories at the ballpark where Tampa Bay was toughest all season.
Kevin Cash has a bullpen question of his own. He used closer Bryan Baker to finish Game 4 despite a four-run margin, an understandable choice with the Rays needing to secure the victory. Baker allowed one hit and no runs across his first five postseason appearances, and he has surrendered only four earned runs since May 17.
But the Rays could need Baker in a tighter spot over the remaining games, and the schedule offers no room for easy recovery. Four straight days would be a difficult ask for any closer. His fastball also sat around 92-93 mph in Game 4, leaving Tampa Bay to determine whether the cold played a role or whether it reflects the velocity decline seen late in the regular season.
For both clubs, Game 5 is the kind of October night that can tilt everything. Tampa Bay has its middle-of-the-order force back in view. Cleveland has rested leverage arms and a home crowd behind Messick. The club that handles Sunday best will carry the series on its shoulders into the final turn.
