Game 1 has become a hard place to stumble in the best-of-three Wild Card Series. Across 24 matchups played under this format in 2020 and from 2022 through 2025, only three clubs have recovered from an opening loss to take the series. Two of those reversals came in the empty-ballpark postseason of 2020. The Yankees’ comeback against the Red Sox last year stands as the only such turnaround in a standard postseason setting.
The Game 1 hole gets deep quickly
Four clubs opened Tuesday by putting themselves in that difficult spot. The numbers do not say a comeback is impossible, but every team now needs two clean wins while carrying a different kind of trouble into Game 2.
- Red Sox: Lost 9-0 to the Yankees after Cam Schlittler limited Boston to three hits and controlled 6 1/3 innings.
- Astros: Fell 6-3 to the White Sox after climbing out of a 5-0 hole but coming up short in a bullpen game.
- Cubs: Took an 8-0 loss to the Padres, with Fernando Tatis Jr. launching Matthew Boyd’s first pitch 405 feet.
- Phillies: Lost 5-3 to the Braves after Austin Riley’s three-run homer off Jhoan Duran erased a 3-2 Philadelphia lead in the eighth.
Boston needs its bats and its health to show up
Boston’s 9-0 defeat extended a troubling finish to the regular season. The Red Sox scored just 71 runs in September, 18 fewer than any other club, and now must solve Max Fried after posting a .473 OPS against the Yankees left-hander this year.
The lineup is also carrying damage into an elimination game. Willson Contreras and Ceddanne Rafaela recently returned from late-season injuries, Mickey Gasper is sidelined by a right biceps problem, and Roman Anthony exited Game 1 after worsening the right-hand issue that had kept him out for most of the season.
There is still a route back, though. Boston was 32-46 roughly three months ago before pulling itself into the postseason picture. The Yankees-Red Sox history also offers a little comfort: in three of their five prior playoff meetings, the team that lost the opener ultimately won the series. The Yankees did it in the 2003 ALCS and the 2025 Wild Card Series, while Boston authored the memorable 2004 ALCS reversal.
- Sonny Gray, who finished the season with a 150 ERA+, is lined up for Game 2.
- Ranger Suárez, with a 127 ERA+, would be available for a deciding Game 3.
- If Boston can grab a lead, its high-leverage bullpen now includes Garrett Crochet.
Boston’s danger rating sits at 6.33, matching the number of innings Schlittler blanked it in the opener.
Houston and Chicago face pitching questions of their own
The Astros need Hunter Brown to extend the series
Houston already entered October under scrutiny as the first postseason qualifier over a full season to finish without a winning record. Its 6-3 loss added to that noise. An Astros staff worn down by the late AL West chase could not contain Chicago, while the White Sox again found a workable plan against Yordan Alvarez. The Houston slugger is 5-for-24 against Sox pitching this season, with just one extra-base hit.
Hunter Brown offers the Astros their clearest answer. He enters Game 2 with a 2.47 ERA over his last eight starts and is the closest pitcher in this series to an established ace. Chicago’s Sean Burke had an excellent year, but the White Sox may have burned a key weapon: Grant Taylor threw 54 pitches in 2 1/3 innings in Game 1, likely taking him out of the Game 2 picture.
If Houston can force a deciding game at Daikin Park, the pressure would shift toward a young White Sox club that stumbled down the stretch. The Astros’ concern rating is 7, the same number of at-bats in which they failed to record a hit with runners in scoring position on Tuesday.
The Cubs need to bring their home-run offense back to life
The Cubs were already trending the wrong way before San Diego’s 8-0 rout. Chicago went 11-13 in its final month and lost the chance to host the series, while the Padres closed 18-6. That contrast continued immediately when Tatis jumped on Boyd’s first offering and the Padres never looked back.
Chicago’s pitching issue remains the long ball. Only the Athletics allowed more home runs during the regular season than the Cubs’ 231, and the homer again played a central role in Game 1. Falling behind is especially dangerous against San Diego, which owns the strongest bullpen among the postseason clubs in this field.
Still, Nick Pivetta presents a more inviting Game 2 matchup than Michael King. Pivetta missed a substantial part of the season with injury concerns, and his fly-ball profile and opponent barrel rates could work in favor of a Cubs lineup that led the National League with 220 homers.
- A Game 3 could bring Walker Buehler, against whom Chicago produced a .968 OPS in two games this season.
- Robbie Ray is another possible San Diego option. He handled the Cubs in his lone start against them, but has encountered trouble since his midseason move to the Padres.
- Chicago’s rating is 8, reflecting how many outs King stood from a no-hitter in the opener.
Philadelphia has the steepest climb after bullpen breakdown
The Phillies may have taken the sharpest emotional hit of the four. They survived Chris Sale, carried a one-run edge into the eighth, and then watched Riley turn one Duran pitch into a three-run, series-opening swing for Atlanta.
Duran had been forced into the game in the seventh because Philadelphia’s bullpen bridge was thin. He threw 27 pitches, leaving his availability for Game 2 uncertain and making an already difficult relief situation even more precarious. Before the outing, Duran had posted a 1.82 ERA in 2026 and brought 8 2/3 scoreless postseason innings into the game.
The pitching arrangement in the opener was partly a consequence of Philadelphia’s disastrous final week, which forced Zack Wheeler to work the regular-season finale. The club now turns to Cristopher Sánchez, a legitimate Game 2 stopper capable of carrying innings and reducing the demand on the bullpen.
Philadelphia will see Tyler Mahle in Game 2 and could face Grant Holmes if the series reaches a third game. Neither Braves starter has postseason experience. The Phillies also found some needed offense against Sale, a sign they can still make the Braves work.
But the relief damage is real. Philadelphia’s Wild Card danger mark is 9.64, matching its bullpen ERA across its last three games overall. In a format where a Game 1 loss so rarely gets repaired, the Phillies need Sánchez to give them a clean path back into the series.
