Tampa Bay spent the week preparing for an American League Division Series without knowing which familiar AL East opponent would walk through the door. The Yankees settled it Wednesday night by sweeping the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series, setting up a best-of-five showdown between the league’s top two regular-season clubs. Game 1 is Saturday at 6:30 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field, with Drew Rasmussen taking the ball for the Rays.
Key takeaways
- The Rays and Yankees split their 13 regular-season meetings, with Tampa Bay holding a 7-6 edge.
- Rasmussen owns a 5-2 record and 1.81 ERA across 10 career regular-season starts against New York.
- Tampa Bay went 55-26 at Tropicana Field, while New York finished 46-34 at Yankee Stadium.
- Cam Schlittler could be positioned for Games 2 and 5 after three sharply different starts against the Rays this year.
- The Rays posted a 31-17 record against left-handed starters despite carrying a .679 OPS in those games.
Rasmussen opens a series built on familiarity
Manager Kevin Cash expects few secrets between two division opponents that have already spent a full season studying one another. “I don’t think either club will have many surprises for the other,” Cash said before the Yankees had completed their Wild Card sweep.
Rasmussen gives Tampa Bay a strong Game 1 option and, should the series stretch that far, would also line up for a possible Game 4 in the Bronx. His history against the Yankees is hard to overlook. In those 10 regular-season starts, he has limited New York to two runs or fewer nine times.
The exception came July 9, when Rasmussen allowed six runs in 2 1/3 innings. Remove that rough afternoon, and the right-hander’s work against the Yankees has been consistently suffocating.
Several key Yankees have had trouble finding clean contact against him. Aaron Judge is 2-for-16 with eight strikeouts, Ben Rice is 1-for-16, Cody Bellinger is 4-for-17, Jazz Chisholm Jr. is 2-for-14, Anthony Volpe is 0-for-11 and Ryan McMahon is 1-for-10.
The Yankees can counter with Schlittler, the American League Cy Young Award front-runner, in a slot that may allow him to make two road starts. Tampa Bay saw three versions of him during the regular season. On April 12, the Rays scored three runs over five innings while making him throw 85 pitches. On July 6, he worked eight innings on 101 pitches and yielded only one run. Then, on Sept. 24, Tampa Bay got him out after three innings and 70 pitches, scoring twice.
For the Rays, the assignment is straightforward even if the execution is not: extend at-bats, elevate the pitch count and avoid letting Schlittler settle into the kind of rhythm he found in July.
Pressure on the bases, pressure on the infield
Tampa Bay made more contact in play than any club in the Majors during the regular season, and the Rays are comfortable manufacturing a run rather than waiting for a three-run homer. They will move runners, challenge defenders, take extra bases and use the bunt when the situation calls for it.
That style created trouble for the Yankees at Tropicana Field in April, when Tampa Bay swept the series while taking advantage of New York mistakes in the field. The Yankees’ infield personnel has changed since then, and they will arrive prepared for the Rays’ pressure game, but the low-scoring environment at the Trop can make one hurried throw or one well-placed bunt matter all night.
Left-handed pitching provides another wrinkle. Tampa Bay’s 31-17 record against lefty starters did not match its underlying production; the Rays’ .679 OPS against southpaws ranked sixth-lowest in baseball. Max Fried, likely in line for Game 3, has been especially difficult for Tampa Bay. He is 5-1 with a 1.81 ERA in seven career starts against the Rays.
Carlos Rodón could also enter the rotation picture. The Rays saw him at his best on Sept. 22 at Yankee Stadium, when he threw eight scoreless innings with eight strikeouts. His exact place in New York’s ALDS plan remains uncertain, but Tampa Bay may need to survive the left-handed starters long enough to reach the Yankees bullpen.
Home field could become the separator in a matchup with little daylight between the clubs. Five of Tampa Bay’s seven regular-season wins over New York came at the Trop, while the Rays went 2-4 at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees earned the road ahead with their Wild Card sweep, but the Rays begin with the building, the crowd and Rasmussen’s recent command of this rivalry on their side.
