The Buffalo Bills enter Sunday’s AFC East meeting with the New England Patriots as the league’s highest-scoring offense, but New England’s ability to slow Josh Allen and establish a more dependable passing game without injured receiver A.J. Brown will shape the matchup at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on CBS.
Buffalo is averaging 33.7 points per game and ranks in the NFL’s top 10 in both passing and rushing production. Allen has accounted for two rushing touchdowns in each of the Bills’ first three games, while running back James Cook III has topped 135 rushing yards in consecutive outings and is averaging 19.3 carries per game. Cook has also produced 12 runs of at least 10 yards.
The Patriots have allowed 4.8 yards per rush, a concern against Buffalo’s balanced offense. New England could use a mixture of single-high man and zone looks, putting cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who is dealing with a shoulder issue, in a possible matchup with Bills receiver DJ Moore. Buffalo also has opportunities for tight end Dalton Kincaid up the seams and on intermediate crossing routes when New England commits extra defenders to the run or Allen’s mobility.
New England quarterback Drake Maye enters the game with six interceptions, the most in the league, and a 45.9 QBR that ranks 25th. Brown is on injured reserve with an ankle injury, leaving the Patriots without a proven boundary target and placing more responsibility on offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to create defined reads and quick answers against pressure.
The Bills have used zone coverage on 65.9% of opponent dropbacks, which could steer Maye toward tight end Hunter Henry and throws in the middle of the field. New England also needs more from its ground game. Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson are part of a rushing attack averaging 3.9 yards per carry, 20th in the NFL, with an explosive-run rate of 8.2%, ranking 25th. A ball-control, play-action approach could help keep Buffalo’s offense off the field while testing the new Bills defensive system led by Jim Leonhard.
Injuries cloud several Week 4 matchups
The Detroit Lions travel to face the Carolina Panthers on Sunday night, with rain possible near kickoff. The Panthers are expected to be without both starting cornerbacks, a major issue against Detroit receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. If Carolina leans heavily on zone coverage, Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs could find room against a defense allowing more rushing yards per game to running backs than any other club. Carolina has also struggled to defend tight ends.
Panthers quarterback Bryce Young may be operating behind a depleted offensive line. Starters Ikem Ekwonu, Damien Lewis and Taylor Moton are out, while reserve lineman Monroe Freeling remains in concussion protocol. Receiver Jalen Coker is questionable with a quad injury. Detroit’s pass defense has been vulnerable, but its front has enough pressure potential to create sacks and takeaways against a shorthanded Carolina offense.
The Philadelphia Eagles have their own mounting concerns before hosting the Los Angeles Rams. DeVonta Smith missed Thursday’s practice because of a hamstring injury, and tight end Dallas Goedert is out with a knee injury. If Smith cannot play, Philadelphia would rely on Dontayvion Wicks, rookie Makai Lemon and Hollywood Brown at wide receiver against a deep Rams secondary.
Los Angeles gets receiver Puka Nacua back as it tries to climb from a 1-2 start. The Rams’ motion-heavy offense presents another communication test for an Eagles defense that struggled with Chicago’s shifting formations in last Monday’s loss. The clubs also meet after last season’s dramatic finish, when Philadelphia erased a large second-half deficit and Jordan Davis blocked what would have been a Rams game-winning field-goal attempt.
Miami will be without De’Von Achane after the running back suffered a season-ending ACL injury. Jaylen Wright and Ollie Gordon II are expected to divide the backfield work against Minnesota, whose defense uses zone coverage on 78% of snaps. Wright and Gordon have limited NFL receiving experience, but the matchup could force Miami to involve its backs as pass catchers.
The Dolphins face former Miami coach Brian Flores, now Minnesota’s defensive coordinator. Flores’ blitz-oriented system presents a difficult assignment for a Dolphins offense led by first-year coordinator Bobby Slowik. Minnesota has allowed sacks on 10.2% of dropbacks, second highest in the league, although Kyler Murray is back at quarterback after Carson Wentz previously handled part of the workload.
Miami’s defense is still searching for its first sack of the season. The Vikings’ protection issues offer a chance to change that, even with Murray’s mobility adding another dimension to the matchup.
Run games and receiver health remain key elsewhere
The Los Angeles Chargers face a difficult rushing test against Seattle, which has been one of the league’s strongest teams up front against the run. Chargers running back Omarion Hampton handled 57.7% of designed rushes last week after shares of 76.7% and 75.0% in the first two games. Keaton Mitchell took on a larger role, and the workload could continue to be more of a committee.
Seattle defensive tackles Byron Murphy II and Leonard Williams present a particularly tough matchup for the Chargers’ interior offensive line. Los Angeles may need to attack the edges to find running room, a role that could favor Mitchell. Hampton’s rushing opportunities also could shrink if the Chargers are forced to play from behind.
Green Bay is looking to revive a ground game that has generated only 146 running-back rushing yards through three games, the eighth-lowest total by a team at this point of a season over the past six years. The Packers rank fifth in pass rate over expectation, but their offensive line issues have made that approach difficult to sustain.
Running back Kaleb Johnson could see more carries when Green Bay faces Tampa Bay and rookie undrafted quarterback Jalon Daniels, who is slated to make his first NFL start for the Buccaneers. The Packers have had extra time following Thursday night’s loss to Atlanta to consider offensive-line changes and recommit to the run. MarShawn Lloyd has not established himself as a trusted early-down option, while Chris Brooks has primarily worked as the third-down back.
Packers quarterback Jordan Love could also see a lower-volume passing plan against Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles, whose defenses are known for aggressive blitz packages. Green Bay was 26th in pass rate over expectation last season under coach Matt LaFleur, a sharp contrast to its current pass-heavy profile.
Houston may give running back Woody Marks a larger role against Dallas. David Montgomery has been useful in keeping the offense on schedule, but the Texans’ offensive-line issues have limited the team’s success in short-yardage situations. Marks offers a way to get to the perimeter, where Houston can avoid some of its interior blocking problems.
The Cowboys have surrendered 114.3 rushing yards per game to running backs, fifth most in the NFL. Dallas has faced mobile quarterbacks in Jaxson Dart, Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson, but its edge-setting has remained an issue. With Nico Collins back in Houston’s starting lineup, the Texans have more flexibility, though their season-long objective has been to give quarterback C.J. Stroud a more functional rushing attack.
Baltimore receiver Zay Flowers is expected to remain central to the Ravens’ passing game after a hamstring injury limited him to 15 routes last week. Despite the restriction, Flowers caught passes for 84 yards. He has 234 receiving yards through three games despite effectively playing only about one-and-a-half full games, including several quarters under a managed workload. Baltimore has used motion, backfield alignments and play-action to create favorable looks for Flowers.
In Las Vegas, tight end Michael Mayer has maintained a consistent route role despite Brock Bowers returning to full health. Mayer has run a route on 71%, 72% and 70% of Raiders dropbacks through the opening three weeks. The Raiders have used multiple-tight-end personnel on more than 80% of offensive snaps, frequently deploying Bowers from the slot or out wide and leaving Mayer to work against linebackers and safeties from inline alignments.
Las Vegas faces Kansas City with a thin traditional receiver group, making Mayer an important secondary option behind Bowers. The Raiders could also be forced into more passing volume if the Chiefs establish an early lead.
Arizona’s offensive line will be under scrutiny against the New York Giants. The Cardinals rank second from the bottom in pass-block win rate but have allowed sacks on only 4.1% of dropbacks, better than the NFL average of 6.0%. The Giants, meanwhile, have managed a 1.0% sack rate, second worst in the league, and rank 25th in pass-rush win rate.
