Milwaukee has earned a quiet week at home, and Pat Murphy sounded almost amused when the World Series calendar was finally put in front of him. After the Brewers completed their Thursday-night elimination of the Dodgers and claimed the National League pennant, an MLB official told Murphy and NLCS MVP Jake Bauers that they would meet again in Milwaukee for the Fall Classic. Murphy’s first question was simple: “When does it begin?”
The answer is Friday, Oct. 23, at American Family Field. Milwaukee’s franchise-best 103-win regular season delivered home-field advantage, leaving the Brewers to wait while Cleveland and Tampa Bay settle the American League Championship Series.
The road to Game 1
- Milwaukee finished its series against the back-to-back champion Dodgers on Thursday night, sending Los Angeles home and securing the Brewers’ place in the World Series.
- The Guardians carried a 2-1 ALCS advantage over the Rays into Friday’s Game 4 at Progressive Field.
- The Brewers will open the World Series at American Family Field on Friday, Oct. 23. Game 1 will air on FOX, FOX Deportes and FOX One.
There is no obvious comfort pick waiting on the other side. Milwaukee went 2-1 against each club during the regular season, though those series offer only a loose guide now that October has changed rosters, roles and urgency.
What Cleveland would bring
The Brewers took the first two games of their June set against Cleveland before rookie left-hander Parker Messick struck out nine Milwaukee hitters across six innings in the finale. The Guardians were missing José Ramírez, Angel Martínez and Chase DeLauter at the time, and all three are now available.
On the six-month ledger, Cleveland looks like the matchup Milwaukee would prefer. The Guardians reached the postseason with the lowest OPS among playoff teams at .696 and scored the fewest runs, 678. Their 530 walks allowed also stand out against Tampa Bay’s 409, a meaningful difference for a Brewers offense that thrives on making pitchers work.
Milwaukee ranked among baseball’s top five clubs in doubles, runs, hits, walks, batting average and on-base percentage. Cleveland’s tendency to issue more free passes could give the Brewers a path to traffic on the bases.
But the Guardians have not played like a light-hitting club in October. Through Thursday, they were producing 4.25 runs per game with a .685 OPS, both better than Tampa Bay’s 3.00 runs per game and .563 OPS. The current version of Cleveland is making the regular-season profile less persuasive.
Its pitching has been sharp, too. The Guardians entered Friday with a 2.54 postseason ERA, narrowly ahead of the Rays’ 2.72. Gavin Williams has been particularly imposing, fanning 33 hitters in 16 2/3 October innings.
The late innings would offer no relief. Cade Smith has surrendered two hits and one run in nine postseason innings while striking out 13. Hunter Gaddis has worked six scoreless innings over seven appearances. Cleveland can turn a close game into a short game quickly.
What Tampa Bay would bring
The Rays came to Milwaukee from March 30 through April 1 and grabbed the opener before the Brewers responded with 6-2 and 8-2 victories. That was an early-season series from another baseball lifetime. Freddy Peralta and catcher Liam Hicks were not even with Tampa Bay then.
The Rays may be the more complete club on paper. Junior Caminero hit 42 home runs during the regular season, leading an offense that tied for fifth in on-base percentage at .326. Tampa Bay also paired its lineup with discipline on the mound and strong defense, issuing the fewest walks in the Majors, 409, while ranking second with 87 defensive runs saved.
That combination would test Milwaukee’s patient, pressure-based offense. The Brewers have made a living by reaching base, moving runners and forcing opponents into uncomfortable innings. Tampa Bay limits walks and turns balls in play into outs better than most.
Its frontline arms have carried that identity into the postseason. Drew Rasmussen owns a 1.29 ERA through two October starts. Peralta has yielded one earned run in 10 2/3 innings, including six scoreless frames in Game 2 of the ALCS.
Tampa Bay’s bullpen has been equally difficult to crack. Bryan Baker has saved all four Rays postseason wins without allowing a hit over four innings, while Ian Seymour has given up one earned run across 6 1/3 innings as a bridge to the back end.
Still, the Rays’ offense has been quieter than Cleveland’s in October. Their Game 3 ALCS lineup managed only three hits, and the club’s postseason production has lagged behind its regular-season reputation.
The human threads
Neither potential opponent arrives without a little history attached.
- Cleveland has not won a World Series since 1948.
- Tampa Bay, like Milwaukee, is still chasing its first championship.
- Brewers president of baseball operations Matt Arnold previously worked in Tampa Bay’s front office with Rays general manager Erik Neander.
- A Brewers-Rays series would also put Peralta against his former organization.
- Guardians manager Stephen Vogt once played in Milwaukee and interviewed for the Brewers’ managerial opening three years ago before Murphy received the job.
- A Cleveland-Milwaukee World Series would carry a fitting connection to Major League, which was filmed in Milwaukee and featured Bob Uecker as broadcaster Harry Doyle during Cleveland’s fictional rise.
If Milwaukee were choosing strictly from the regular-season numbers, Cleveland would get the slight nod. The Guardians had the thinner lineup over 162 games and gave up more walks, two traits that line up with the Brewers’ offensive personality. Yet Cleveland’s October offense has made that preference less certain, while Tampa Bay’s pitching, defense and deeper regular-season attack present their own problems.
The Brewers have already shown a knack for pushing games late and mounting comebacks this postseason. Against either American League survivor, the cleaner route will be to build a lead before Baker, Smith or another high-leverage arm takes over the ninth.
For now, Milwaukee can rest, heal and watch. The Dodgers are gone, Bauers has an NLCS MVP award, and Murphy has the start date. The remaining question is who will walk into American Family Field on Oct. 23.
