2026-27 NHL Goalie Win Projections: Vasilevskiy leads the board at 39 wins, while Colorado is forecast to post the League’s best team total with 53.
SEO Title: 2026-27 NHL Goalie and Team Win Projections
SEO Description: Andrei Vasilevskiy tops the 2026-27 goalie win forecast, with Colorado, Carolina and Florida leading the projected NHL team-win race.
The crease forecast for the 2026-27 NHL season puts Andrei Vasilevskiy at the head of the class with 39 projected victories for Tampa Bay. Jake Oettinger is right behind at 38 for Dallas, while Washington’s Logan Thompson is projected for 35.
Colorado carries the strongest club projection at 53 wins, one ahead of Carolina. Florida is tabbed for 50, with Washington also reaching that mark. The estimates are built for an 84-game schedule and are intended as conservative win baselines rather than ceilings for individual goaltenders.
How the win forecast was built
- Individual goalie estimates account for regular-season and playoff history, expected workload, supporting offense, health considerations, age, contract situation and potential for either improvement or regression.
- The goalie order reflects projected wins only. It does not mirror broader fantasy rankings that also weigh save percentage, goals-against average and shutouts.
- Club totals combine the projected victories of each team’s goaltenders. Together, the projections account for all 1,344 NHL games on the schedule.
- Overtime and shootout losses are not included in the club-win order, even though those results still provide a standings point.
Projected goalie wins
| Goaltender | Team | Projected wins |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | Tampa Bay Lightning | 39 |
| Jake Oettinger | Dallas Stars | 38 |
| Logan Thompson | Washington Capitals | 35 |
| Karel Vejmelka | Utah | 34 |
| Jeremy Swayman | Boston Bruins | 33 |
| Brandon Bussi | Carolina Hurricanes | 33 |
| Jesper Wallstedt | Minnesota Wild | 33 |
| Jakub Dobes | Montreal Canadiens | 32 |
| Igor Shesterkin | New York Rangers | 32 |
| Connor Hellebuyck | Winnipeg Jets | 31 |
| Lukas Dostal | Anaheim Ducks | 31 |
| Ilya Sorokin | New York Islanders | 31 |
| Linus Ullmark | Ottawa Senators | 31 |
| Jacob Markstrom | Florida Panthers | 30 |
| Juuse Saros | Nashville Predators | 29 |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | Buffalo Sabres | 28 |
| Scott Wedgewood | Colorado Avalanche | 28 |
| Jake Allen | New Jersey Devils | 28 |
| Sergei Bobrovsky | Toronto Maple Leafs | 28 |
| Dan Vladar | Philadelphia Flyers | 27 |
| Carter Hart | Vegas Golden Knights | 27 |
| John Gibson | Detroit Red Wings | 26 |
| Mackenzie Blackwood | Colorado Avalanche | 25 |
| Jet Greaves | Columbus Blue Jackets | 25 |
| Frederik Andersen | Edmonton Oilers | 25, injured |
| Yaroslav Askarov | San Jose Sharks | 25 |
| Spencer Knight | Chicago Blackhawks | 24 |
| Joel Hofer | St. Louis Blues | 24 |
| Arturs Silovs | Pittsburgh Penguins | 23 |
| Darcy Kuemper | Los Angeles Kings | 21 |
| Dustin Wolf | Calgary Flames | 20 |
| Akira Schmid | Florida Panthers | 20 |
| Joey Daccord | Seattle Kraken | 20 |
| Pyotr Kochetkov | Carolina Hurricanes | 19 |
| Alex Lyon or Colten Ellis | Buffalo Sabres | 18 |
| Tristan Jarry or Devon Levi | Edmonton Oilers | 18 |
| Adin Hill | Vegas Golden Knights | 18 |
| Sergei Murashov | Pittsburgh Penguins | 17 |
| Alex Nedeljkovic or Eric Comrie | San Jose Sharks | 17 |
| Jordan Binnington | St. Louis Blues | 17 |
| Joseph Woll | Philadelphia Flyers | 17 |
| Anton Forsberg | Los Angeles Kings | 16 |
| Anthony Stolarz | Toronto Maple Leafs | 16 |
| Nico Daws | New Jersey Devils | 16 |
| Jacob Fowler or Sam Montembeault | Montreal Canadiens | 15 |
| Charlie Lindgren | Washington Capitals | 15 |
| Thatcher Demko | Vancouver Canucks | 14 |
| Daniil Tarasov | Detroit Red Wings | 14 |
| Elvis Merzlikins | Columbus Blue Jackets | 13 |
| Filip Gustavsson or Calvin Pickard | Minnesota Wild | 13 |
| Samuel Ersson or Leevi Merilainen | Not specified | 12 |
| Ville Husso or Laurent Brossoit | Anaheim Ducks | 11 |
| Devin Cooley or Arsenii Sergeev | Calgary Flames | 11 |
| Casey DeSmith | Dallas Stars | 11 |
| Kevin Lankinen | Vancouver Canucks | 11 |
| Michael DiPietro | Boston Bruins | 10 |
| Philipp Grubauer | Seattle Kraken | 10 |
| Sebastian Cossa | Utah | 10 |
| Semyon Varlamov or Vitek Vanecek | New York Islanders | 9 |
| Justus Annunen | Nashville Predators | 9 |
| Arvid Soderblom or Drew Commesso | Chicago Blackhawks | 8 |
| Dennis Hildeby or Jonas Johansson | Tampa Bay Lightning | 8 |
| Joonas Korpisalo | New York Rangers | 8 |
| Stuart Skinner | Winnipeg Jets | 7 |
Team win board
Colorado’s 53 projected wins set the pace, with Carolina at 52 and Florida and Washington at 50. The biggest projected improvement belongs to Toronto, which is listed at 44 wins, a 12-win increase from last season’s total. Florida follows with a projected gain of 10, while Washington is forecast to rise by seven.
Atlantic Division
| Team | Projected wins | Change from last season |
|---|---|---|
| Florida Panthers | 50 | +10 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 47 | -1 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 47 | -3 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 46 | -4 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 44 | +12 |
| Ottawa Senators | 43 | -1 |
| Boston Bruins | 43 | -2 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 40 | -1 |
Metropolitan Division
| Team | Projected wins | Change from last season |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | 52 | -1 |
| Washington Capitals | 50 | +7 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 44 | +1 |
| New Jersey Devils | 44 | +2 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 40 | -1 |
| New York Islanders | 40 | -3 |
| New York Rangers | 40 | +6 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 38 | -2 |
Central Division
| Team | Projected wins | Change from last season |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | 53 | -2 |
| Dallas Stars | 49 | -1 |
| Minnesota Wild | 46 | Even |
| Utah | 44 | +1 |
| St. Louis Blues | 41 | +4 |
| Nashville Predators | 38 | Even |
| Winnipeg Jets | 38 | +3 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 32 | +3 |
Pacific Division
| Team | Projected wins | Change from last season |
|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | 45 | +6 |
| Edmonton Oilers | 43 | +2 |
| San Jose Sharks | 42 | +3 |
| Anaheim Ducks | 42 | -1 |
| Los Angeles Kings | 37 | +2 |
| Calgary Flames | 31 | -3 |
| Seattle Kraken | 30 | -4 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 25 | Even |
The numbers make the crease picture clear at the top: Vasilevskiy and Oettinger are projected to drive heavy-win clubs, while Thompson’s 35-win forecast gives Washington a major foundation for its projected jump. As always, the final ledger will depend on health, starts and the nightly goal support in front of each netminder.
